Estimates of the effect of college selectivity on earnings may be biased because elite colleges admit students, in part, based on characteristics that are related to future earnings. We matched students who applied to, and were accepted by, similar colleges to try to eliminate this bias. Using the College and Beyond data set and National Longitudinal Survey of the High School Class of 1972, we find that students who attended more selective colleges earned about the same as students of seemingly comparable ability who attended less selective schools. Children from low-income families, however, earned more if they attended selective colleges.

This paper argues that parties regulate competition among Hke-minded factions so as to enhance reputation building by, and voter trust in, the politicians standing for a given cause. While intra- and interparty competition contributes to keeping politicians on their toes, unbridled competition may encourage politicians to challenge good platforms and to wage competition along socially suboptimal dimensions (for example, by privileging form over content). The paper builds a simple model of intraparty competition and studies whether various hierarchical or democratic party institutions constitute an efficient form of party governance. The paper shows that intraparty disagreements, when they occur, hurt the party's position in the general election, but that their possibility enhances party image; and that parties must be able to avoid behind-the-scene allocations of portfolios and spoils in order to be credible. Last, it analyzes the impact of political polarization and interparty competition on the choice of party governance.

We compare two competing theories of financial anomalies: "behavioral" theories built on investor irrationality, and "rational structural uncertainty" theories built on incomplete information about the structure of the economic environment. We find that although the theories relax opposite assumptions of the rational expectations ideal, their mathematical and predictive similarities make them difficult to distinguish. Even if irrationality generates financial anomalies, their disappearance still may hinge on rational learning-that is, on the ability of rational arbitrageurs and their investors to reject competing rational explanations for observed price patterns.

This article uses a new dataset of credit card accounts to analyze credit card delinquency, personal bankruptcy, and the stability of credit risk models. We estimate duration models for default and assess the relative importance of different variables in predicting default. We investigate how the propensity to default has changed over time, disentangling the two leading explanations for the recent increase in default rates—a deterioration in the risk composition of borrowers versus an increase in borrowers’ willingness to default due to declines in default costs. Even after controlling for risk composition and economic fundamentals, the propensity to default significantly increased between 1995 and 1997. Standard default models missed an important time-varying default factor, consistent with a decline in default costs.

This article uses a new dataset of credit card accounts to analyze credit card delinquency, personal bankruptcy, and the stability of credit risk models. We estimate duration models for default and assess the relative importance of different variables in predicting default. We investigate how the propensity to default has changed over time, disentangling the two leading explanations for the recent increase in default rates-a deterioration in the risk composition of borrowers versus an increase in borrowers' willingness to default due to declines in default costs. Even after controlling for risk composition and economic fundamentals, the propensity to default significantly increased between 1995 and 1997. Standard default models missed an important time-varying default factor, consistent with a decline in default costs.

Closed-end funds (CEFs) show a distinctive feature in comparison to mutual funds: The market value determined on organized exchanges dynamically differs over time from the reported net asset value by a discount. This predominant capital market anomaly motivates our valuation model to price CEFs. We derive a stochastic pricing model that captures both the price risk of the funds as well as their risk associated with altering discounts. Implementing this theoretical model on a sample of emerging market closed-end funds we are able to infer insights into two potential applications for investors. First, we test the forecasting power of the pricing model to predict CEF market prices. Second, based on information on the premia we implement portfolio trading strategies using filter rules. The results on these suggested applications indicate that our pricing model generates valuable investment information.

This paper utilizes a unique data set of credit card accounts to analyze how people respond to credit supply. Increases in credit limits generate an immediate and significant rise in debt, counter to the Permanent-Income Hypothesis. The “MPC out of liquidity” is largest for people starting near their limit, consistent with binding liquidity constraints. However, the MPC is significant even for people starting well below their limit, consistent with precautionary models. Nonetheless, there are other results that conventional models cannot easily explain, for example, why so many people are borrowing on their credit cards, and simultaneously holding low yielding assets. The long-run elasticity of debt to the interest rate is approximately -1.3, less than half of which represents balance-shifting across cards.