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Why does option-implied volatility forecast realized volatility? Evidence from news events

Journal of Banking & Finance 2023 156, 107019
This study examines the information content of stock option-implied volatility. We measure the arrival intensities and magnitudes of scheduled and unscheduled news as well as fundamental and non-fundamental news. Most of these news measures exhibit strong and positive associations with contemporaneous stock return volatility, and many of them can be predicted by implied volatility. Approximately one third of the predictive power of implied volatility on future realized volatility can be attributed to its ability to predict these news measures, with the majority of the predictive power arising from its capacity to predict the arrival intensities of both scheduled and unscheduled news. The predictive power is higher for fundamental news than for non-fundamental news.

Equity financing incentive and corporate disclosure: new causal evidence from SEO deregulation

Review of Accounting Studies 2023 28(2), 1003-1034 open access
We provide new causal evidence for the impact of equity financing incentive on firms’ voluntary disclosure decisions by exploring the 2008 seasoned equity offering deregulation, which exogenously facilitates small firms’ access to public equity financing and increases their equity issuance incentives without changing their business and information environments. We argue that the heightened equity financing incentive due to the deregulation can motivate a firm to increase disclosures even in the period without actual equity issuance, because such disclosures, by signaling a commitment to disclosure, could reduce the cost of equity in case the firm issues equity in the future. Consistent with this argument, we find that, benchmarking against control firms that are not affected by the deregulation, an average treatment firm that is affected by the deregulation but does not issue equity provides more management earnings forecasts in the post-deregulation period. The effect is mainly driven by repeated forecasters and is more pronounced for firms with greater equity financing needs and firms with higher information asymmetry in the equity market.

Stability and Regime Change: The Evolution of Accounting Standards

The Accounting Review 2023 98(3), 135-152
We examine the evolution of accounting regulation by linking disclosure policies and investments in a dynamic voting model. The disclosure policies are the outcome of voting by entrepreneurs, whose preferences are influenced by their investments. The investments are in turn endogenously determined by current and future disclosure policies. Absent external influences, accounting regimes are stable. A disclosure regime of high (low) quality and a strong (weak) economy coexist and reinforce each other. However, regulatory interventions can result in regime changes by changing the entrepreneurs’ expectations, even without direct enforcement. Unexpected shocks could also result in regime changes by impacting economic conditions and hence voter composition. Our analysis provides a framework to study the interaction between accounting regulation and firms’ economic decisions.

Dual Ownership and Risk-Taking Incentives in Managerial Compensation

Review of Finance 2023 27(5), 1823-1857 open access
This article studies how the three-way interaction among shareholders, creditors, and managers shapes firms’ executive compensation. Firms with a higher ownership share by “dual holders”—institutional investors that simultaneously hold equity and bond of the company—adopt a less risk-inducing compensation structure: less stock options and more inside debt. Exploiting financial institution mergers that increase or decrease dual ownership for portfolio companies, we identify a causal link between dual ownership and CEO compensation policies. Mutual fund proxy voting data suggest that shareholder voting is an important channel for dual holders to implement less convex contracts.

Attention Spillover in Asset Pricing

Journal of Finance 2023 78(6), 3515-3559 open access
Exploiting a screen display feature whereby the order of stock display is determined by the stock's listing code, we lever a novel identification strategy and study how the interaction between overconfidence and limited attention affect asset pricing. We find that stocks displayed next to those with higher returns in the past two weeks are associated with higher returns in the future week, which are reverted in the long run. This is consistent with our conjectures that investors tend to trade more after positive investment experience and are more likely to pay attention to neighboring stocks, both confirmed using trading data.