Empirical work testing for a trade‐off between risk and incentives has had, at best, mixed success. This article provides two simple reasons, associated with subjectivity of performance appraisals, why we might not expect to see any negative relationship. Both reasons relate to empirically observed problems associated with monitoring: (i) supervisors sometimes bias their evaluations based on their personal feelings toward their subordinates, and (ii) supervisors will sometimes offer evaluations that reduce their costs. These aspects of monitoring are ignored in the standard model and can reverse the usual negative trade‐off between risk and incentives.

Empirical work testing for a negative trade-off between risk and incentives has not had much success: the data suggest a positive relationship between measures of uncertainty and incentives rather than the posited negative trade-off. I argue that the existing literature fails to account for an important effect of uncertainty on incentives through the allocation of responsibility to employees. When workers operate in certain settings, firms are content to assign tasks to workers and monitor their inputs. By contrast, when the situation is more uncertain, they delegate responsibility to workers but, to constrain their discretion, base compensation on observed output.