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Dynamic Games with Asymmetric Information: A Framework for Empirical Work*

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2012 127(4), 1611-1661
We develop a framework for the analysis of dynamic oligopolies with persistant sources of asymmetric information that enables applied analysis of situations of empirical importance that have been difficult to deal with. The framework generates policies that are “relatively” easy for agents to use while still being optimal in a meaningful sense, and is amenable to empirical research in that its equilibrium conditions can be tested and equilibrium policies are relatively easy to compute. We conclude with an example that endogenizes the maintenance decisions of electricity generators when the costs states of the generators are private information.

Price Cycles and Booms: Dynamic Search Equilibrium

American Economic Review 1992 82(5), 1221-1233
Search theory has been extensively and successfully applied to explain the persistence of price dispersion. This paper presents an explicitly dynamic search model which is able to account for cyclical patterns of prices and demand over time. These cyclical features of the model are the consequence of the dynamic strategic interaction between buyers and firms and do not require the presence of extraneous factors such as shocks or heterogeneity of agents in order to obtain. The model builds on earlier work by Kenneth Burdett and Kenneth L. Judd and may be interpreted as a dynamic extension of their model.

Insider Trading and the Managerial Choice among Risky Projects

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1994 29(1), 1
The concern of this paper is with the effects of insider trading on ex ante managerial behavior. Specifically, the paper focuses on how insider trading affects insiders ' choice among investment projects. Other things equal, insider trading leads insiders to choose riskier investment projects, because increased volatility of results enables insiders to make greater trading profits if they learn these results in advance of the market. This effect might be beneficial, however, because insiders ' risk aversion pulls them toward a conservative investment policy. Insiders ' choices of projects are identified and compared with insider trading and those without such trading. Using these results, the conditions under which insider trading increases or decreases corporate value by affecting the choice of projects with uncertain returns are identified. I.

Dynamic Duopolistic Competition with Sticky Prices

Econometrica 1987 55(5), 1151
The authors study duopolistic competition in a homogeneous good through time under the assumption that its current desirability is an exponentially-weighted function of accumulated past consumption. This implies that the current price of the good does not decline by as much to accommodate any given level of current consumption. Our an alysis is conducted in terms of a differential game. It is found that the equilibrium price corresponding to the open-loop Nash equilibriu m strategies approaches the static Cournot equilibrium price while th e equilibrium price corresponding to the closed-loop Nash equilibrium strategies, which are subgame perfect, approaches a price below it. Copyright 1987 by The Econometric Society.

Equilibrium Incentives in Oligopoly

American Economic Review 1987 77(5), 927-940
We examine the incentives that owners of competing firms give their managers. We show that, in equilibrium, each manager will be paid in excess of his decision's marginal profit in a Cournot-quantity game, but paid less than the marginal profit in a price game. In the Cournot case, deviations from profit maximization are reduced by ex ante cost uncertainty and increased by correlation in the firms' costs.

Social Status, Education, and Growth

Journal of Political Economy 1996 104(1), 108-132
This paper investigates the implications of social rewards on the allocation of talent in society and consequently on the process of economic growth. We consider two sources of heterogeneity among workers: nonwage income and innate ability. A greater emphasis on status may induce the "wrong" individuals, that is, those with low ability and high wealth, to acquire schooling, causing workers with high ability and low wealth to leave the growth-enhancing industries. This crowding-out effect, taken alone, discourages growth. Growth may be enhanced by a more egalitarian distribution of wealth, which reduces the demand for status.

Social Status, Education, and Growth

Journal of Political Economy 1996 104(1), 108-132
This paper investigates the implications of social rewards on the allocation of talent in society and consequently on the process of economic growth. The authors consider two sources of heterogeneity among workers: nonwage income and innate ability. A greater emphasis on status may induce the 'wrong' individuals, that is, those with low ability and high wealth, to acquire schooling, causing workers with high ability and low wealth to leave the growth-enhancing industries. This crowding-out effect, taken alone, discourages growth. Growth may be enhanced by a more egalitarian distribution of wealth, which reduces the demand for status. Copyright 1996 by University of Chicago Press.