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An Experimental Test of an Optimal Growth Model

American Economic Review 2002 92(3), 411-433
This paper describes the design and behavior of an experimental economy with the structure of the Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model of optimal growth. The experiment includes three different implementations of the model: a decentralized implementation with multiple agents and a market for capital, a treatment where individual subjects are placed in the role of social planners, and a treatment where the social planner consists of five agents making a joint decision. The findings highlight the role of market institutions in facilitating convergence to the optimal steady state.

An Experimental Investigation of the Patterns of International Trade

American Economic Review 1995 85(3), 462-491
This paper studies a laboratory economy with some of the prominent features of an international economic system. The patterns of trade and output predicted by the law of comparative advantage are observed evolving within the experimental markets. Market prices and quantities move in the direction of the competitive equilibrium, but the quantitative predictions of the (risk-neutral) competitive equilibrium are rejected. Considerable amounts of economic activity occur as disequilibria. Factor-price equalization is observed, but there is a universal tendency for factors of production to trade at prices below their marginal products.

Emotional State and Market Behavior

Review of Finance 2018 22(1), 279-309 open access
Abstract We consider the relationship between trader emotions and asset market behavior. We create experimental asset markets with the structure first studied by Smith, Suchanek, and Williams (1988), which is known to generate price bubbles and crashes. To track traders’ emotions in real time, we analyze participants’ facial expressions with facereading software before and while the market is operating. We find that a positive emotional state correlates with purchases and overpricing. Fear correlates with selling, low prices, and price decreases. The experiment confirms the intuition that emotions and market dynamics are closely related.

The Impact of Asset Repurchases and Issues in an Experimental Market

Review of Finance 2014 18(2), 681-713 open access
Abstract We create an experimental asset market in which the value of the shares is independent of the quantity outstanding, and find that (i) repurchases increase, whereas share issues decrease, the price of the asset. These effects are consistent with downward-sloping demand for the asset. (ii) This behavior is consistent with three trader types—fundamental, speculator, and momentum—interacting in the market. (iii) Share issues drive prices down toward, but not beyond, fundamental values. This downward resistance at the fundamental value is predicted by the impact of an intervention on the proportion of units and cash held by each trader type.

The Effect of Short Selling on Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Spot Asset Markets

Journal of Finance 2006 61(3), 1119-1157
ABSTRACT A series of experiments illustrate that relaxing short‐selling constraints lowers prices in experimental asset markets, but does not induce prices to track fundamentals. We argue that prices in experimental asset markets are influenced by restrictions on short‐selling capacity and limits on the cash available for purchases. Restrictions on short sales in the form of cash reserve requirements and quantity limits on short positions behave in a similar manner. A simulation model, based on DeLong et al. (1990) , generates average price patterns that are similar to the observed data.

Nonspeculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality vs. Actual Irrationality

Econometrica 2001 69(4), 831-859
We report the results of an experiment designed to study the role of speculation in the formation of bubbles and crashes in laboratory asset markets. In a setting in which speculation is not possible, bubbles and crashes are observed. The results suggest that the departures from fundamental values are not caused by the lack of common knowledge of rationality leading to speculation, but rather by behavior that itself exhibits elements of irrationality. Much of the trading activity that accompanies bubble formation, in markets where speculation is possible, is due to the fact that there is no other activity available for participants in the experiment.

Higher Order Risk Attitudes, Demographics, and Financial Decisions

Review of Economic Studies 2014 81(1), 325-355
We study the prevalence of the higher order risk attitudes of prudence and temperance in an experiment with a large demographically representative sample of participants. Under expected utility, prudence and temperance are defined by a convex first, and concave second, derivative of the utility function, and have direct implications for saving behaviour and portfolio choice. In the experiment, participants make pairwise choices that distinguish prudent from imprudent, and temperate from intemperate, behaviour. We correlate individuals' risk aversion, prudence, and temperance levels to their demographic profiles and their financial decisions outside the experiment. We observe that the majority of individuals' decisions are consistent with risk aversion, prudence, and temperance. Prudence is positively correlated with saving, as predicted by precautionary saving theory. Temperance is negatively correlated with the riskiness of portfolio choices. Copyright 2014, Oxford University Press.

Cooperation in a Dynamic Fishing Game: A Framed Field Experiment

American Economic Review 2015 105(5), 408-413
We derive a dynamic theoretical model of renewable resource extraction. In the social optimum, maximum extraction occurs in the last period only, while in the unique subgame perfect Nash equilibrium, the resource is depleted immediately. The predictions are tested in a field experiment conducted at a recreational fishing pond. The subjects, experienced recreational fishermen, face a dynamic social dilemma, in which they risk depletion of the resource by overfishing. We find strong support for the Nash equilibrium. Fishermen exert as much effort in the last period as in preceding periods, and effort is independent of the stock of fish.

From the Lab to the Field: Cooperation among Fishermen

Journal of Political Economy 2012 120(6), 1027-1056 open access
We conduct a field experiment to measure cooperation among groups of recreational fishermen at a privately owned fishing facility. Group earnings are greater when group members catch fewer fish. Consistent with classical economic theory, though in contrast to prior results from laboratory experiments, we find no cooperation. A series of additional treatments identifies causes of the difference. We rule out the subject pool and the laboratory setting as potential causes and identify the type of activity involved as the source of the lack of cooperation in our field experiment. When cooperation requires reducing fishing effort, individuals are not cooperative.

The Principles of Exchange Rate Determination in an International Finance Experiment

Journal of Political Economy 1997 105(4), 822-861
This paper reports the first experiments designed to explore the behavior of economies with prominent features of international finance. Two “countries,” each with its own currency, were created. International trade could take place only through the operation of markets for currency. The law of one price and the flow of funds theory of exchange rate determination were used to produce general equilibrium models that captured much of the behavior of the economies. Prices of goods, as well as the exchange rate, evolve over time toward the predictions of the models. However, both the law of one price and purchasing power parity can be rejected for reasons that do not appear in the literature. Patterns of international trade were as predicted by the law of comparative advantage.