[We develop a theory of multiperiod debt structure. A simple trade-off between the termination threat required to make debt repayments incentive compatible and the desire to avoid early liquidation determines the number of repayments, their timing, and amounts. As firms increase their borrowing, they add periodic risky repayments from the back of the maturity structure, with the time between repayments increasing in cash-flow risk. Cash-flow growth or a significant risk-free cash-flow component limits the number of risky repayments. Firms with a significant risk-free cash-flow component choose dispersed maturity profiles with smaller, relatively safe repayments every period, rather than riskier periodic repayments.]

This article shows that improving financial efficiency may reduce real efficiency. While the former depends on the total amount of information available, the latter depends on the relative amounts of hard and soft information. Disclosing more hard information (e.g., earnings) increases total information, raising financial efficiency and reducing the cost of capital. However, it induces the manager to prioritize hard information over soft by cutting intangible investment to boost earnings, lowering real efficiency. The optimal level of financial efficiency is non-monotonic in investment opportunities. Even if low financial efficiency is desirable to induce investment, the manager may be unable to commit to it. Optimal government policy may involve upper, not lower, bounds on financial efficiency.

We develop a theory of multiperiod debt structure. A simple trade-off between the termination threat required to make debt repayments incentive compatible and the desire to avoid early liquidation determines the number of repayments, their timing, and amounts. As firms increase their borrowing, they add periodic risky repayments from the back of the maturity structure, with the time between repayments increasing in cash-flow risk. Cash-flow growth or a significant risk-free cash-flow component limits the number of risky repayments. Firms with a significant risk-free cash-flow component choose dispersed maturity profiles with smaller, relatively safe repayments every period, rather than riskier periodic repayments. Received May 31, 2017; editorial decision October 8, 2018 by Editor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh.

We analyze a coordination game of regime change where the policy maker, who tries to increase the probability of the survival of the regime, commits ex ante to abandon the regime automatically when its fundamentals are below a certain threshold. This policy acts as an information transmission mechanism: agents, who decide whether to attack the regime or not, update positively about the fundamentals of the regime when they see that it has not been abandoned, and so they are less likely to attack. Using the commitment ability, the policy maker can thus increase the overall survival probability of the regime.

We analyze credit rating effects on firm investments in a rational bond financing game that features a feedback loop. The credit rating agency (CRA) inflates the rating, providing a biased but informative signal to creditors. Creditors' response to the rating affects the firm's investment decision and thus its credit quality, which is reflected in the rating. The CRA might reduce ex ante economic efficiency, which results solely from its strategic effect: the CRA assigns more firms high ratings and allows them to gamble for resurrection. We derive empirical predictions on the determinants of rating standards and inflation and discuss policy implications.

Spousal education is correlated with earnings for two reasons: cross‐productivity between couples and assortative mating. This article empirically disentangles the two effects by using Chinese twins data. We have two innovations: using twins data to control for the unobserved mating effect in our estimations and estimating both current and wedding‐time earnings equations. We find that both crossproductivity and mating are important in explaining the current earnings. Although the mating effect exists for both husbands and wives, the cross‐productivity effect mainly runs from Chinese husbands to wives. Our findings shed light on the theories of human capital, marriage, and the family.

Investors often hold differing opinions on public information quality. This paper shows that such investor disagreement provides a novel explanation for financial market dynamics around earnings announcements. We propose a rational expectations equilibrium model where investors disagree about the precision of a public signal, which separates a pre-news trading period from a post-news trading period. In equilibrium, investor disagreement about public signal precision diminishes informational price efficiency before the news, but enhances it afterward. Consequently, investor disagreement leads to a notable jump in informed trading around the news, a decline in abnormal trading volume before the news and a surge immediately after the news, and underreaction of stock price to announced earnings.

We propose a theory of reputation to explain how investors rationally respond to mutual fund star ratings. A fund's performance is determined by its information advantage, which can be acquired but decays stochastically. Investors form beliefs about whether the fund is informed based on its past performance. We refer to such beliefs as fund reputation, which determines fund flows. As performance changes continuously, equilibrium fund reputation may take discrete values only and thus can be labeled with stars. Star upgrades thus imply reputation jumps, leading to discrete increases in flows and expected performance, although stars do not provide new information.