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Price Pass-Through and the Minimum Wage

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2001 83(1), 158-169
This paper tests a textbook consequence of competitive markets: that an industry-wide increase in the price of labor is passed on to consumers through an increase in prices. Using several data sources on restaurant prices, I explore the price impact of minimum-wage hikes in Canada and the United States. Particular attention is paid to the timing of these price responses to gauge the ‘stickiness’ of minimum-wage cost shocks. I find that restaurant prices generally rise with changes in the wage bill and that this response is concentrated in the quarter surrounding the month during which the legislation is enacted.

The Evolution of Technological Substitution in Low-Wage Labor Markets

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2024 106(4), 1045-1063
This paper uses minimum wage hikes to evaluate the susceptibility of low-wage employment to technological substitution. We find that automation is accelerating and supplanting a broader set of low-wage routine jobs since the 2008–2009 financial crisis. Simultaneously, low-wage interpersonal jobs are increasing and offsetting routine job loss. However, interpersonal job growth does not appear to be enough, as it was prior to the financial crisis, to fully offset the negative effects of automation on low-wage routine jobs. Employment losses are most evident among non-Asian people of color who experience outsized losses at routine jobs and smaller gains at interpersonal jobs.

Product Market Evidence on the Employment Effects of the Minimum Wage

Journal of Labor Economics 2007 25(1), 167-200
We infer the employment response to a minimum wage change by calibrating a model of employment for the restaurant industry. Whereas perfect competition implies that employment falls and prices rise after a minimum wage increase, the monopsony model potentially implies the opposite. We show that estimated price responses are consistent with the competitive model. We place fairly tight bounds on the employment response, with the most plausible parameter values suggesting that a 10% increase in the minimum wage lowers low‐skill employment by 2%–4% and total restaurant employment by 1%–3%.

The Effect of Part‐Time Work on Wages: Evidence from the Social Security Rules

Journal of Labor Economics 2004 22(2), 329-352
This article identifies the part‐time wage effect, using hours variation caused by the social security rules. We show that work hours and wages drop sharply at ages 62 and 65. We argue that the hours decline causes the wage decline, resulting in a 25% wage penalty for men who cut their work week from 40 to 20 hours. However, we find little evidence for such an effect among women. We also show that models that fail to account for the joint determination of hours and wages will understate the labor supply response to a tax change by about 26%.

The Impact of Rosenwald Schools on Black Achievement

Journal of Political Economy 2011 119(5), 821-888
The black-white gap in schooling among southern-born men narrowed sharply between the world wars. From 1914 to 1931, nearly 5,000 schools were constructed as part of the Rosenwald Rural Schools Initiative. Using census data and World War II records, we find that the Rosenwald program accounts for a sizable portion of the educational gains of rural southern blacks. We find significant effects on school attendance, literacy, years of schooling, cognitive test scores, and northern migration. The gains are highest in the most disadvantaged counties, suggesting that schooling treatments have the largest impact among those with limited access to education.

Teachers and Student Achievement in the Chicago Public High Schools

Journal of Labor Economics 2007 25(1), 95-135
We estimate the importance of teachers in Chicago public high schools using matched student-teacher administrative data. A one standard deviation, one semester improvement in math teacher quality raises student math scores by 0.13 grade equivalents or, over 1 year, roughly one-fifth of average yearly gains. Estimates are relatively stable over time, reasonably impervious to a variety of conditioning variables, and do not appear to be driven by classroom sorting or selective score reporting. Also, teacher quality is particularly important for lower-ability students. Finally, traditional human capital measures—including those determining compensation—explain little of the variation in estimated quality.

Introduction: A Special Issue in Honor of Joseph Altonji

Journal of Labor Economics 2021 39(S1), S1-S3
Joseph Altonji is one of the pioneers of modern labor economics. To mark Joe’s sixty-fifth birthday and honor his illustrious career, a conference was held at his alma mater and employer, Yale University, on September 7–8, 2018. This special issue contains seven of the papers presented by former students, coauthors, and colleagues. Joe has been central to the empirical revolution that has brought vast amounts of individual-level data to some of the most important questions ofbothmicroandmacroeconomics.His seminal breakthroughshave changed thewaywe think aboutnumerous topics, including the studyof consumption behavior and labor supply over time, intrafamily insurance, discrimination, wage determination and learning, school choice and school quality, returns to higher education, and the stochastic process of income. The hallmark of all thiswork is a thoughtful combination of theory anddata, the development ofnewempiricalmethods, thediscoveryofnovel identificationstrategies, and extreme care with extensive robustness checks and attention to data details. Early on in his career Joe was one of the first to develop our understanding of the relationship between intratemporal and intertemporal allocations and the implication this distinction has on estimating elasticities. These

The Long-Run Effects of the 1930s Redlining Maps on Children

Journal of Economic Literature 2023 61(3), 846-862
We estimate the long-run effects of the 1930s Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) redlining maps by linking children in the full count 1940 census to 1) the universe of Internal Revenue Service (IRS) tax data in 1974 and 1979 and 2) the long form 2000 census. We use two identification strategies to estimate the potential long-run effects of differential access to credit along HOLC boundaries. The first strategy compares cross-boundary differences along HOLC boundaries to a comparison group of boundaries that had statistically similar preexisting differences as the actual boundaries. A second approach only uses boundaries that were least likely to have been chosen by the HOLC based on our statistical model. We find that children living on the lower-graded side of HOLC boundaries had significantly lower levels of educational attainment, reduced income in adulthood, and lived in neighborhoods during adulthood characterized by lower educational attainment, higher poverty rates, and higher rates of single-parent households.

Fertility Transitions Along the Extensive and Intensive Margins

American Economic Review 2014 104(11), 3701-3724 open access
By allowing for an extensive margin in the standard quantity-quality model, we generate new insights into fertility transitions. We test the model on Southern black women affected by a large-scale school construction program. Consistent with our model, women facing improved schooling opportunities for their children were more likely to have at least one child but chose to have smaller families overall. By contrast, women who themselves obtained more schooling due to the program delayed childbearing along both the extensive and intensive margins and entered higher quality occupations, consistent with education raising opportunity costs of child rearing.

The Spending and Debt Response to Minimum Wage Hikes

American Economic Review 2012 102(7), 3111-3139 open access
Immediately following a minimum wage hike, household income rises on average by about $250 per quarter and spending by roughly $700 per quarter for households with minimum wage workers. Most of the spending response is caused by a small number of households who purchase vehicles. Furthermore, we find that the high spending levels are financed through increases in collateralized debt. Our results are consistent with a model where households can borrow against durables and face costs of adjusting their durables stock.