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Financing Constraints and the Amplification of Aggregate Downturns

Review of Financial Studies 2015 28(9), 2463-2501
This paper shows that during industry downturns, firms experience significantly greater valuation losses when their industry peers' long-term debt is maturing at the time of the shocks. Across a range of tests, the analysis addresses the endogenous determination of peer debt-maturity structure. Overall, the evidence suggests that the negative externalities financially constrained firms impose on their industry peers can significantly amplify the effects of industry downturns. The evidence also provides support for the view that these amplification effects are driven by the adverse effect that financially constrained firms have on the balance sheets of their industry peers.

Financing Constraints and the Amplification of Aggregate Downturns

Review of Financial Studies 2015 28(9), 2463-2501 open access
This paper shows that during industry downturns, firms experience significantly greater valuation losses when their industry peers' long-term debt is maturing at the time of the shocks. Across a range of tests, the analysis addresses the endogenous determination of peer debt-maturity structure. Overall, the evidence suggests that the negative externalities financially constrained firms impose on their industry peers can significantly amplify the effects of industry downturns. The evidence also provides support for the view that these amplification effects are driven by the adverse effect that financially constrained firms have on the balance sheets of their industry peers.

How Do Financing Constraints Affect Firms’ Equity Volatility?

Journal of Finance 2018 73(3), 1139-1182
Theory suggests that financing frictions can have significant implications for equity volatility by shaping firms’ exposure to economic risks. This paper provides evidence that an important determinant of higher equity volatility among research and development (R&D)‐intensive firms is fewer financing constraints on firms’ ability to access growth options. I provide evidence for this effect by studying how persistent shocks to the value of firms’ tangible assets (real estate) affect their subsequent equity volatility. The analysis addresses concerns about the identification of these balance sheet effects and shows that these effects are consistent with broader patterns on the equity volatility of R&D‐intensive firms.

The Real Effects of Government‐Owned Banks: Evidence from an Emerging Market

Journal of Finance 2014 69(2), 577-609
Using plant‐level data for Brazilian manufacturing firms, this paper provides evidence that government control over banks leads to significant political influence over the real decisions of firms. I find that firms eligible for government bank lending expand employment in politically attractive regions near elections. These expansions are associated with additional (favorable) borrowing from government banks. Further, these persistent expansions take place just before competitive elections, and are associated with lower future employment growth by firms in other regions. The analysis suggests that politicians in Brazil use bank lending to shift employment towards politically attractive regions and away from unattractive regions.

Loan spreads and credit cycles: The role of lenders’ personal economic experiences

Journal of Financial Economics 2023 148(2), 118-149 open access
We provide evidence that changes in lender optimism can lead to excessive fluctuations in credit spreads across the credit cycle. Using data on the real estate properties of loan officers originating large corporate loans, we find that credit spreads overreact to sophisticated lenders’ recent local economic experiences, captured by local housing price growth. These effects are only present when borrowers own real estate assets and during times of greater uncertainty about real estate values, i.e., boom-and-bust cycles in housing prices. Our analysis suggests that recent personal experiences shape sophisticated lenders’ beliefs about real estate values, which affect their pricing decisions.

Lending Relationships and the Effect of Bank Distress: Evidence from the 2007–2009 Financial Crisis

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2015 50(6), 1165-1197
We study the transmission of bank distress to nonfinancial firms from 34 countries during the 2007–2009 financial crisis using systemic and bank-specific shocks. We find that bank distress is associated with equity valuation losses and investment cuts to borrower firms with the strongest lending relationships with banks. The losses are not offset by borrowers’ access to public debt markets and are concentrated in firms with the greatest information asymmetry problems and weakest financial positions. Our findings suggest that public debt markets do not mitigate the effects of relationship bank distress during financial crises.

The Working Capital Credit Multiplier

Journal of Finance 2024 79(6), 4247-4302 open access
We provide novel evidence that funding frictions can limit firms’ short‐term investments in receivables and inventories, reducing their production capacity. We propose a credit multiplier driven by these considerations and empirically isolate its importance by comparing how a similar firm responds to shocks differently when these shocks are initiated in their most profitable quarter (“main quarter”). We implement this test using recurring and unpredictable shocks (e.g., oil shocks) and provide extensive evidence supporting our identification strategy. Our results suggest that funding constraints and credit multiplier effects are significant for smaller firms that heavily rely on financing from suppliers.

The Impact of Bank Credit on Labor Reallocation and Aggregate Industry Productivity

Journal of Finance 2018 73(6), 2787-2836
We provide evidence that the deregulation of U.S. state banking markets leads to a significant increase in the relative employment and capital growth of local firms with higher productivity, and that this effect is concentrated among young firms. Using financial data for a broad range of firms, our analysis suggests that this effect is driven by a shift in the composition of local bank credit supply toward more productive firms. We estimate that this effect translates into economically important gains in aggregate industry productivity and that changes in the allocation of labor play a central role in driving these gains.