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The Efficiency of Slacking off: Evidence From the Emergency Department

Econometrica 2018 86(3), 997-1030
Work schedules play an important role in utilizing labor in organizations. In this study of emergency department physicians in shift work, schedules induce two distortions: First, physicians “slack off†by accepting fewer patients near end of shift (EOS). Second, physicians distort patient care, incurring higher costs as they spend less time on patients assigned near EOS. Examining how these effects change with shift overlap reveals a tradeoff between the two. Within an hour after the normal time of work completion, physicians are willing to spend hospital resources more than six times their market wage to preserve their leisure. Accounting for overall costs, I find that physicians slack off at approximately second†best optimal levels.

Teamwork and Moral Hazard: Evidence from the Emergency Department

Journal of Political Economy 2016 124(3), 734-770
I investigate how teamwork may reduce moral hazard by joint monitoring and management. I study two organizational systems differing in the extent to which physicians may mutually manage work: Physicians are assigned patients in a “nurse-managed” system but divide patients between themselves in a “self-managed” system. The self-managed system increases throughput productivity by reducing a “foot-dragging” moral hazard, in which physicians prolong patient stays as expected future work increases. I find evidence that physicians in the same location have better information about each other and that, in the self-managed system, they use this information to assign patients.

Industry Input in Policy Making: Evidence from Medicare*

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2019 134(3), 1299-1342
In setting prices for physician services, Medicare solicits input from a committee that evaluates proposals from industry. The committee itself comprises members from industry; we investigate whether this arrangement leads to regulatory capture with prices biased toward industry interests. We find that increasing a measure of affiliation between the committee and proposers by one standard deviation increases prices by 10%. We then evaluate whether employing a biased committee as an intermediary may nonetheless be desirable, if greater affiliation allows the committee to extract information needed for regulation. We find industry proposers more affiliated with the committee produce less hard evidence in their proposals. However, on soft information, we find evidence of a trade-off: private insurers set prices that more closely track Medicare prices generated under higher affiliation.

How Sensitive are Low Income Families to Health Plan Prices?

American Economic Review 2010 100(2), 292-296 open access
As health care reform moves forward in the United States, one common feature of virtually all proposals is to expand coverage for low income populations not through a traditional public insurance model, but rather through a “defined contribution exchange” mechanism. Under this approach, low income individuals would have a choice of a number of options for their insurance coverage. Individuals would receive a subsidy to purchase insurance that was tied to the lowest-cost plan (or some index of low-cost plans) and would pay some part of the difference if they chose a more expensive plan. This major departure from the traditional free/single-choice public payer model raises a number of important questions, but the key initial question is: How price-sensitive will lowincome consumers be in choosing across plans? While there is now a sizable literature evaluating plan choice in the context of employerprovided insurance, there are no previous studies of how these very low income populations will respond to choice in publicly financed insurance programs. In this paper, we study the plan choice of low-income enrollees in Massachusetts’ Commonwealth Care program that was established as part of the state’s health reform in April 2006. Enrollees in Commonwealth Care were given a choice of up to four Medicaid Managed The MassachuseTTs healTh Insurance experIMenT: early experIences †

Is There a VA Advantage? Evidence from Dually Eligible Veterans

American Economic Review 2023 113(11), 3003-3043 open access
We study public versus private provision of health care for veterans aged 65 and older who may receive care provided by the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) and in private hospitals financed by Medicare. Utilizing the ambulance design of Doyle et al. (2015), we find that the VA reduces 28-day mortality by 46 percent (4.5 percentage points) and that these survival gains are persistent. The VA also reduces 28-day spending by 21 percent and delivers strikingly different reported services relative to private hospitals. We find suggestive evidence of complementarities between continuity of care, health IT, and integrated care.

Selection with Variation in Diagnostic Skill: Evidence from Radiologists

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2022 137(2), 729-783
Physicians, judges, teachers, and agents in many other settings differ systematically in the decisions they make when faced with similar cases. Standard approaches to interpreting and exploiting such differences assume they arise solely from variation in preferences. We develop an alternative framework that allows variation in preferences and diagnostic skill and show that both dimensions may be partially identified in standard settings under quasi-random assignment. We apply this framework to study pneumonia diagnoses by radiologists. Diagnosis rates vary widely among radiologists, and descriptive evidence suggests that a large component of this variation is due to differences in diagnostic skill. Our estimated model suggests that radiologists view failing to diagnose a patient with pneumonia as more costly than incorrectly diagnosing one without, and that this leads less skilled radiologists to optimally choose lower diagnostic thresholds. Variation in skill can explain 39% of the variation in diagnostic decisions, and policies that improve skill perform better than uniform decision guidelines. Failing to account for skill variation can lead to highly misleading results in research designs that use agent assignments as instruments.