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Markups and the Euro

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2011 93(4), 1440-1452
This paper reports evidence that OECD economies adopting fixed exchange rates in the process of forming the European currency union experienced declines in labor share of income at the industry level. This occurs most sharply among countries that experienced the biggest changes in their exchange rate policy. An implication of New Keynesian sticky price theory is that monetary policy has a first-order impact on labor share through the interaction of business cycle uncertainty and the choice of optimal markups. However, there is also evidence that goods market integration encouraged by the euro had a negative impact on the bargaining position of labor.

World War II and Convergence

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2002 84(1), 131-138
Proxies that measure the effect of World War II on a country's capital stock are used as instruments for estimating standard cross-country growth regressions. The war's destruction should offer a natural experiment that allows us to consistently estimate the speed at which productivity growth converges to its long-run path. This paper presents evidence that convergence rates are approximately 4% to 6% per annum, substantially larger than conventional wisdom.

Emerging market exchange rate exposure

Journal of Banking & Finance 2008 32(7), 1349-1362
We estimate the exposure of emerging market companies to fluctuations in their domestic exchange rates. We use an instrumental-variable approach that identifies the total exposure of a company to exchange rate movements, yet abstracts from the influence of confounding macroeconomic shocks. In the sub-period of 1999–2002, we find that depreciations tend to have a negative impact on emerging market stock returns. In the sub-period of 2002–2006, this tendency has largely disappeared. Since we estimate the exchange rate exposure of firms from different countries with a common set of instruments, we can make coherent, cross-country comparisons of their determinants. We find that the impact of various measures of debt on exchange rate exposure, which is negative and significant in the early sub-period, becomes insignificant and even reverses sign in the recent sub-period.