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Expanding Credit Access: Using Randomized Supply Decisions to Estimate the Impacts

Review of Financial Studies 2010 23(1), 433-464
[Expanding access to commercial credit is a key ingredient of financial development strategies. There is less consensus on whether expanding access to consumer credit helps borrowers, particularly when loans are extended at high interest rates. Popular skepticism about "unproductive," "usurious" lending is fueled by research highlighting behavioral biases that may induce overborrowing. We estimate the impacts of expanding access to consumer credit at a 200% annual percentage rate (APR) using a field experiment and follow-up data collection. The randomly assigned marginal loans produced significant net benefits for borrowers across a wide range of outcomes. There is also some evidence that the loans were profitable.]

Expanding Credit Access: Using Randomized Supply Decisions to Estimate the Impacts

Review of Financial Studies 2010 23(1), 433-464
Expanding access to commercial credit is a key ingredient of financial development strategies. There is less consensus on whether expanding access to consumer credit helps borrowers, particularly when loans are extended at high interest rates. Popular skepticism about “unproductive,” “usurious” lending is fueled by research highlighting behavioral biases that may induce overborrowing. We estimate the impacts of expanding access to consumer credit at a 200% annual percentage rate (APR) using a field experiment and follow-up data collection. The randomly assigned marginal loans produced significant net benefits for borrowers across a wide range of outcomes. There is also some evidence that the loans were profitable.

What Capital is Missing in Developing Countries?

American Economic Review 2010 100(2), 629-633 open access
What capital is missing in developing countries? We put forward “managerial capital,” which is distinct from human capital, as a key missing form of capital in developing countries. And it has also been curiously missing in the research on growth and development. We argue in this paper that lack of managerial capital has broad implications for firm growth as well as for the effectiveness of other input factors. A large literature in development economics aims to understand the impediments to firm growth, particularly in small and medium enterprises. Standard growth theories have explored the importance of input factors such as capital and labor in the production function of firms and countries. At the micro level, empirical studies such as Suresh de Mel, David McKenzie and Christopher Woodruff (2008), Abhijit Banerjee et al. (2009), and Dean Karlan and Jonathan Zinman (2009) have estimated the impact of access to finance for capital constrained microenterprises (see Karlan and Jonathan Morduch, 2009, for a review). At the macro level, papers by Robert King and Ross Levine (1993), Raghuram Rajan and Luigi Zingales (1998), and Marianne Bertrand, Antoinette Schoar, and David Thesmar (2007) suggest the importance of the financial system for economic growth.

What's Advertising Content Worth? Evidence from a Consumer Credit Marketing Field Experiment*

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2010 125(1), 263-305
Firms spend billions of dollars developing advertising content, yet there is little field evidence on how much or how it affects demand. We analyze a direct mail field experiment in South Africa implemented by a consumer lender that randomized advertising content, loan price, and loan offer deadlines simultaneously. We find that advertising content significantly affects demand. Although it was difficult to predict ex ante which specific advertising features would matter most in this context, the features that do matter have large effects. Showing fewer example loans, not suggesting a particular use for the loan, or including a photo of an attractive woman increases loan demand by about as much as a 25% reduction in the interest rate. The evidence also suggests that advertising content persuades by appealing “peripherally” to intuition rather than reason. Although the advertising content effects point to an important role for persuasion and related psychology, our deadline results do not support the psychological prediction that shorter deadlines may help overcome time-management problems; instead, demand strongly increases with longer deadlines.