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Public information and heuristic trade

Journal of Accounting and Economics 1999 27(1), 89-124
We characterize the steady-state equilibrium in which informed traders who exhibit heuristic (i.e., representativeness, as opposed to Bayesian) and Bayesian behaviors achieve the same expected utility. Then, we show how the endogenous, steady-state proportion of heuristic traders is affected by the quality of public information and other exogenous features of our model. Finally, we discuss how the presence of heuristic traders potentially alters the link between improved public disclosure and market liquidity, the variance in the change in price, and market efficiency.

Disclosure and the cost of capital: A discussion

Journal of Accounting and Economics 1999 26(1-3), 271-283 open access
In this discussion I comment on the contribution of two papers toward our understanding of how disclosure affects the cost of capital. Specifically, in the context of these papers, I comment on whether disclosure ameliorates or exacerbates the cost of capital that arises from the existence of information asymmetries in capital markets. This is a notion that should be of fundamental interest in that it provides an economic basis for evaluating the costs and benefits of accounting information.

An Essay on Fiscal Federalism

Journal of Economic Literature 1999 37(3), 1120-1149
This paper is a selective survey of fiscal federalism. It begins with a brief review and some reflections on the traditional theory of fiscal federalism: the assignment of functions to levels of government, the welfare gains from fiscal decentralization, and the use of fiscal instruments. It then explores a series of important topics that are the subject of current research: laboratory federalism, interjurisdictional competition and environmental federalism, the political economy of fiscal federalism, market-preserving federalism, and fiscal decentralization in the developing and transitional economies.

The effect of accounting-based debt covenants on equity valuation

Journal of Accounting and Economics 1999 27(1), 1-34 open access
We use an option pricing framework to model equity valuation when firms face costs associated with violating accounting-based debt covenants. Our model shows that the value of equity depends on two factors: the economic value of the firm and the probability that the firm violates the covenant. Consistent with the model's prediction that the `covenant' effect is greatest for firms near covenant violation, we find that responses to earnings that are less informative about future cash flows (losses and transitory earnings) are significant only for thrift institutions that are near violation of regulatory net worth covenants.

Introducing convexity into optimal compensation contracts

Journal of Accounting and Economics 1999 28(3), 307-327
We study when it is appropriate to add a convex component such as stock options to an optimal, managerial compensation contract. We show that convexity is introduced when managers have moderate levels of relative risk aversion and decreasing absolute risk aversion. In addition, we study how convexity is affected as the distribution of outcomes becomes more skewed toward low outcomes. Here we show that while convexity increases when skewness is increased without regard to the effect on mean stock price, the opposite effect results when increases in skewness leave the mean stock price unchanged.

Share repurchases and intangible assets

Journal of Accounting and Economics 1999 28(2), 211-241
Firms with more intangible assets are more likely to repurchase shares and have more positive repurchase announcement returns, as predicted. Because intangibles generally are unrecognized, share repurchases represent a potential cost to an incomprehensive accounting model. Idle cash is positively related to repurchase likelihood and negatively related to announcement returns, as predicted. Contrary to predictions, general information asymmetry is negatively related to repurchase likelihood, but announcement returns are positively related, as predicted. Tests include controls for stock option plans, dividends, and book-to-market ratios, which generally are significant as predicted. Using change variables in the repurchase likelihood tests yields consistent inferences.

The Grid Bootstrap and the Autoregressive Model

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1999 81(4), 594-607
A “grid” bootstrap method is proposed for confidence-interval construction, which has improved performance over conventional bootstrap methods when the sampling distribution depends upon the parameter of interest. The basic idea is to calculate the bootstrap distribution over a grid of values of the parameter of interest and form the confidence interval by the no-rejection principle. Our primary motivation is given by autoregressive models, where it is known that conventional bootstrap methods fail to provide correct first-order asymptotic coverage when an autoregressive root is close to unity. In contrast, the grid bootstrap is first-order correct globally in the parameter space. Simulation results verify these insights, suggesting that the grid bootstrap provides an important improvement over conventional methods. Gauss code that calculates the grid bootstrap intervals-and replicates the empirical work reported in this paper'is available from the author's Web page at www.ssc.wisc.edu˜bhansen

Optimal choice of contracting methods: negotiated versus competitive underwritings revisited

Journal of Financial Economics 1999 51(3), 451-471
We use a previously unexploited data base, specifically debt offerings by AT&T and its subsidiaries in the period 1970–1974, to examine the relative costliness of competitive and negotiated offerings. A sample based on the experience of a single issuer allows us to minimize the influence of agency considerations and differential riskiness of the issuers. We find no systematic ex post cost difference, and we also find that negotiation was chosen during comparatively unsettled times.