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Labor Reallocation over the Business Cycle: New Evidence from Internal Migration

Journal of Labor Economics 2011 29(4), 697-739 open access
This article establishes the cyclical properties of a novel measure of worker reallocation: long-distance migration rates within the United States. Combining evidence from a number of data sets spanning the entire postwar era, we find that internal migration within the United States is procyclical. This result cannot be explained by cyclical variation in relative local economic conditions, suggesting that the net benefit of moving rises during booms. Migration is most procyclical for younger labor-force participants. Therefore, cyclical fluctuations in the net benefit of moving appear to be related to conditions in the labor market and the spatial reallocation of labor.

The Squam Lake Report: Commentary

Journal of Economic Literature 2011 49(1), 114-119
The idea of the Squam Lake Report was to bring together some fifteen leading U.S. financial economists to see what regulatory changes they could jointly agree and thereby influence policy discussions. Seeking to find a consensus, however, meant that many issues were not mentioned in the Report, e.g., structural limitations, Pigovian taxes, procyclicality, and boundary problems between banks and nonbanks. But what is presented is generally, though not invariably, admirable, and the book is beautifully written in good, easily accessible English. (JEL E44, E52, G01, G21, G28, L51)

The demographics of fund turnover

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2011 20(3), 414-440
This article documents various demographic factors which influence mutual fund turnover including managerial experience, location, education, and gender. On average, funds in financial centers trade more but this excess turnover declines with experience. While most extra trading is concentrated among less experienced managers in financial centers, they do not outperform inexperienced managers located in smaller towns. Furthermore, managers in financial centers increase trading after good performance. This result is particularly strong for inexperienced, more educated male fund managers investing in growth stocks and located in New York. Our results provide strong evidence that demographic factors influence fund manager trading behavior.

The optimal monetary instrument for prudential purposes

Journal of Financial Stability 2011 7(2), 70-77
The purpose of this paper is to assess the choice between adopting a monetary base or an interest rate setting instrument to maintain financial stability. Our results suggest that the interest rate instrument is preferable, since during times of a panic or financial crisis the Central Bank automatically satisfies the increased demand for money. Thus, it prevents sharp losses in asset values and enhanced asset volatility.

Optimal Annuity Risk Management

Review of Finance 2011 15(4), 799-833
Abstract This paper studies the life-cycle consumption and portfolio choice problem taking account of annuity risk at retirement. The study allows for government-provided annuity income. Optimally, households allocate retirement wealth to nominal, inflation-linked and variable annuities, and condition this choice on the state of the economy. The case in which there are limitations in the types of annuities that are available is also considered and the costs of annuity market incompleteness are quantified. Subsequently, the paper determines how investors optimally anticipate annuitization before retirement. The conclusion is that ignoring annuity risk before and at retirement can be economically costly.

Informed and Uninformed Investment in Housing: The Downside of Diversification

Review of Financial Studies 2011 24(5), 1447-1480
[Mortgage lenders that concentrate in a few markets invest more in information collection than diversified lenders. Concentrated lenders focus on the information-intensive jumbo market and on high-risk borrowers. They are better positioned to price risks and, thus, ration credit less. Adverse selection, however, leads to higher retention of mortgages relative to diversified lenders. Finally, concentrated lenders have higher profits than diversified lenders, their profits vary less systematically, and their stock prices fell less during the 2007—2008 credit crisis. The results imply that geographic diversification led to a decline in screening by lenders, which likely played a role in the 2007—2008 crisis.]

When Does Information Asymmetry Affect the Cost of Capital?

Journal of Accounting Research 2011 49(1), 1-40 open access
ABSTRACT This paper examines when information asymmetry among investors affects the cost of capital in excess of standard risk factors. When equity markets are perfectly competitive, information asymmetry has no separate effect on the cost of capital. When markets are imperfect, information asymmetry can have a separate effect on firms’ cost of capital. Consistent with our prediction, we find that information asymmetry has a positive relation with firms’ cost of capital in excess of standard risk factors when markets are imperfect and no relation when markets approximate perfect competition. Overall, our results show that the degree of market competition is an important conditioning variable to consider when examining the relation between information asymmetry and cost of capital.

Disagreement and the Cost of Capital

Journal of Accounting Research 2011 49(1), 41-68
ABSTRACT We assess how forms of disagreement among investors affect a firm's cost of capital. Firms experience a lower cost of capital if investors perceive that other investors are ignoring relevant disclosures (perceived errors of omission), but a higher cost of capital if investors perceive that others are responding to irrelevant disclosures (perceived errors of commission). The impact of these two sources of disagreement on the cost of capital is determined by the distribution of opinion and the nature of disclosure. For example, even though aggregated disclosures reveal less to investors, aggregated disclosures may decrease the cost of capital by eliminating disagreement associated with perceived errors of commission. These and additional results arise because the cost of capital is driven not only by investors’ uncertainty about the firm's future earnings performance, but also by investors’ uncertainty about the evolution of beliefs, which partly determines the path of prices.