We quantify the importance of trade credit chains for the propagation of corporate bankruptcies. Our results show that trade creditors (suppliers) that issue more trade credit are more exposed to trade debtor (customer) failures, both in terms of the likelihood of experiencing a debtor failure and the loss given failure. We further document that the credit loss invoked by a debtor failure imposes a substantially enhanced bankruptcy risk on the creditors. The propagation mechanism is mitigated for creditors that are less levered, cash rich, and highly profitable, and enhanced in R&D intense industries and during economic downturns.

Using data on liquidity shortfalls generated by the fraud and failure of a cash-in-transit firm, we demonstrate effects on firms’ trade credit usage. We find that firms manage liquidity shortages by increasing the amount of credit drawn from suppliers and decreasing the amount issued to customers. The compounded trade credit adjustments are on average of similar magnitude as corresponding adjustments in cash holdings, suggesting that trade credit positions are economically important sources of reserve liquidity for firms. The underlying mechanism in trade credit adjustments is in part due to shifts in overdue payments.

We demonstrate improvements in predictive power when introducing spline functions to take account of highly nonlinear relationships between firm failure and leverage, earnings, and liquidity in a logistic bankruptcy model. Our results show that modeling excessive nonlinearities yields substantially improved bankruptcy predictions, on the order of 70%–90%, compared with a standard logistic model. The spline model provides several important and surprising insights into nonmonotonic bankruptcy relationships. We find that low-leveraged as well as highly profitable firms are riskier than those given by a standard model, possibly a manifestation of credit rationing and excess cash-flow volatility.