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Dividend Stickiness and Strategic Pooling

Review of Financial Studies 2010 23(12), 4455-4495
[We argue that dividend stickiness, the tendency of managers to keep dividends unchanged, implies that managers use a partially pooling dividend policy. We offer a model that demonstrates how such a policy can evolve endogenously in equilibrium. An informed manager who cares about the firm's intrinsic value as well as short-term stock price allocates earnings between investments and dividends. We show that there is a continuum of equilibria in which the dividend is constant for a range of realized earnings. Compared with the standard separating equilibrium, this partial pooling behavior induces higher firm value and lower underinvestment. We offer new empirical implications relating the pooling nature of dividend stickiness to the information environment of the firm, dividend prediction models, managerial incentives, and investment.]

Limit Order Book as a Market for Liquidity

Review of Financial Studies 2005 18(4), 1171-1217
We develop a dynamic model of a limit order market populated by strategic liquidity traders of varying impatience. In equilibrium, patient traders tend to submit limit orders, whereas impatient traders submit market orders. Two variables are the key determinants of the limit order book dynamics in equilibrium: the proportion of patient traders and the order arrival rate. We offer several testable implications for various market quality measures such as spread, trading frequency, market resiliency, and time to execution for limit orders. Finally, we show the effect of imposing a minimal price variation on these measures.

Payments for Order Flow on Nasdaq

Journal of Finance 1999 54(1), 35-66
We present a model of Nasdaq that includes the two ways in which marketmakers compete for order flow: quotes and direct payments. Brokers in our model can execute small trades through a computerized system, preferencing arrangements with marketmakers, or vertical integration into market making. The comparative statics in our model differ from those of the traditional model of dealer markets, which does not capture important institutional features of Nasdaq. We also show that the empirical evidence is inconsistent with the traditional model, which suggests that preferencing and vertical integration are important components in understanding Nasdaq.

Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets

Journal of Political Economy 1995 103(4), 831-872
Most models of trade in speculative markets assume that agents interpret public information identically. We provide empirical evidence on the relation between the volume of trade and stock returns around public announcements, and we argue that the evidence is inconsistent with this assumption. We then develop a model of trade around public announcements that incorporates differential interpretations and is consistent with the observed volume-return relation. Then we test the standard model of belief revision underlying most models of trade using stock brokerage research analysts' earnings forecasts. The hypthesis of identical interpretations seems inconsistent with the forecast revisions in these data.

Peer Pressure and Partnerships

Journal of Political Economy 1992 100(4), 801-817
Partnerships and profit sharing are often claimed to motivate workers by giving them a share of the pie. But in organizations of any significant size, the free-rider effects would seem to choke off any motivational forces. This analysis explores how peer pressure operates and how factors such as profit sharing, shame, guilt, norms, mutual monitoring, and empathy interact to create incentives in the firm. The argument that Japanese firms enjoy team spirit because compensation is linked to overall profitability is analyzed. An explanation for the prevalence of partnerships among individuals in similar occupations is provided.

Between Search and Walras

Journal of Labor Economics 2002 20(1), 59-85
We present a model in which unemployed workers simultaneously sample n potential employers. By varying n, we nest search and Walrasian‐type models of the labor market. We show that low values of n yield typical search equilibria: the wages are dispersed below the marginal productivity of labor. Interestingly, as n exceeds a relatively small threshold, the Walrasian‐type equilibrium emerges with the competitive wage quoted by all firms. For intermediate values of n, the equilibrium is a hybrid of the Walrasian and search equilibria. The model generates wage rigidity and yields novel predictions regarding the comovement of wages, firm turnover, and unemployment.

Shareholder Diversification and the Decision to Go Public

Review of Financial Studies 2008 21(6), 2779-2824
[We study the effects of the controlling shareholders' portfolio diversification on the initial public offering (IPO) process. Less diversified shareholders have more to gain from taking their firm public, and are more willing to accept a lower price for shares. We test these hypotheses using the data on all IPOs in Sweden between 1995 and 2001. Using detailed information on the portfolio composition of shareholders in private and public firms, we construct several proxies of their portfolio diversification and relate them to the probability of the IPO and the underpricing. We show that the less diversified individual shareholders, especially those with lower wealth, sell more of their shares at the IPO. Firms held by less diversified controlling shareholders are more likely to go public, and exhibit higher underpricing. These effects are economically and statistically significant, while the diversification of noncontrolling shareholders has no effect. Our findings suggest that diversification of controlling shareholders plays a prominent role in the IPO process.]

Brokerage Commissions and Institutional Trading Patterns

Review of Financial Studies 2009 22(12), 5175-5212
[The institutional brokerage industry faces an ever-increasing pressure to lower trading costs, which has already driven down average commissions and shifted volume toward low-cost execution venues. However, traditional full-service brokers that bundle execution with services remain a force and their commissions are still considerably higher than the marginal cost of trade execution. We hypothesize that commissions constitute a convenient way of charging a prearranged fixed fee for long-term access to a broker's premium services. We derive testable predictions based on this hypothesis and test them on a large sample of institutional trades from 1999 to 2003. We find that institutions negotiate commissions infrequently, and thus commissions vary little with trade characteristics. Institutions also concentrate their order flow with a relatively small set of brokers, with smaller institutions concentrating their trading more than large institutions and paying higher per-share commissions. These results are stable over time, are consistent with our predictions, and cannot be explained by cost-minimization alone. Finally, we discuss the evolution of the institutional brokerage market within the proposed framework and make informal predictions about future developments in the industry.]

VC Funds: Aging Brings Myopia

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2011 46(2), 431-457
We study the conflict of interests between the limited partners (LPs) and the general partner (GP) in a venture capital (VC) fund with a limited life span. LPs commit money, while the GP selects and monitors projects. Midway into the project, the GP privately observes the project’s quality and the estimated time to exit. The fund’s limited time horizon and the GP’s informational advantage lead to inefficient decisions at this stage. First, the GP continues bad projects. Second, he may stop monitoring good, but delay-prone projects. We provide empirical predictions and illustrative evidence that the magnitude of the effect is significant.

The effect of a closing call auction on market quality and trading strategies

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2012 21(1), 23-49
We study the effects of the introduction of a closing auction (CA) on the microstructure on the continuous trading phase in Borsa Italiana and Paris Bourse. We postulate and compare several empirical predictions based on both standard Kyle-type models and more recent models of limit order book. We find that while the CA has no effect during most of the day, its effect on the last minutes of trading is dramatic. We document a sharp decline in volume, associated with a significant reduction in spread and volatility, and an increase in aggressiveness of liquidity suppliers during the last minutes. We show that the differences in the Reference Price algorithm between Milan and Paris have a significant effect: the CA attracts greater volumes when the Reference Price is equated to the CA price.