Abstract This study examines whether a simple measure of internet search intensity for publicly traded retail firms can enhance the capital market's firm‐level revenue expectations and provide insights into economy‐wide retail sales. At the firm level, the search index is predictive of analyst nowcast and forecast errors after controlling for past sales, deferred revenue, firm characteristics, and firm and time fixed effects. An implementable trading strategy generates abnormal returns of roughly 2% to 3% from the fiscal quarter end through the earnings announcement, well above transaction costs. We also find that approximately two‐thirds of the abnormal returns occur around earnings announcements, with an even greater fraction for firms with coarser information environments. At the macro level, we find that the permanent, seasonal, and transitory components of our search intensity index align with those of the Census Bureau's retail sales data and US real gross domestic product, suggesting our measure is a leading indicator of personal consumption expenditures, a key driver of aggregate output. The aggregated search index nowcasts aggregated publicly traded retail firm sales both within and out‐of‐sample after controlling for past sales.

ABSTRACT Research shows that investors acquire and process less firm‐specific information on days when many firms announce earnings (hereafter earnings clusters). We show that investors gather more macroeconomic information during earnings clusters, that this behavior is amplified during negative economic shocks and concurrent macroeconomic announcements, and that these information acquisition patterns have implications for equity valuations. Our findings are consistent with the benefit of extracting macroeconomic information from earnings announcements increasing during earnings clusters, which we confirm empirically. Thus, our results help explain why investors focus less on individual firm news during earnings clusters: They rationally redirect their attention to the most beneficial information.

ABSTRACT This study provides the first empirical evidence that the Federal Reserve (the Fed) systematically retrieves micro-level accounting reports to aid its understanding of the state of the macroeconomy. Using unique data identifying its direct access of corporate SEC filings, we show that the Fed tracks firms that are bellwethers and industry leaders, or that can engender systemic risk. The qualitative information in the Fed-accessed periodic reports explains the Fed’s GDP growth forecasts for up to four quarters, after controlling for contemporaneous aggregate earnings and other economic information. However, professional forecasts fail to incorporate such qualitative accounting information. In addition, this qualitative information is reflected in the tone of the ensuing FOMC meeting discussions as well as in Fed forecasts of key macro demand and supply factors. Overall, our evidence suggests important externalities of micro-level accounting reports, especially qualitative disclosures, on the central bank’s macroeconomic forecasts and, by extension, monetary policy. Data Availability: Data are available from public sources. JEL Classifications: E58; G20; M41; M45.