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Demand uncertainty, inventory, and cost structure

Contemporary Accounting Research 2024 41(1), 226-254
Building on Banker, Byzalov, and Plehn‐Dujowich's (2014, The Accounting Review , 89 (3), 839–865) congestion cost theory, we model firms' trade‐off between a rigid cost structure and a high inventory level to reduce the congestion costs caused by uncertain demand. We demonstrate that firms with a higher inventory level adopt a less rigid cost structure, but the effect of cost structure on inventory is theoretically ambiguous. Using a large sample of manufacturing firms in the United States, we empirically investigate the dynamic interdependence between cost structure and inventory choices. Our results reveal that cost structure rigidity and inventory are negatively associated with each other over time, suggesting that they serve as substitutes in tackling demand uncertainty. Further analysis demonstrates that firms favor higher inventory levels over more rigid costs when inventory‐carrying costs decrease, fixed input costs increase, or downside risk escalates.

Stock price crash risk and firms’ operating leverage

Journal of Financial Stability 2024 71, 101219
We extend Jin and Myers’s (2006) model to derive the relation between stock price crash risk and operating leverage (i.e., the fraction of fixed costs in total costs). The model predicts that (1) firms’ operating leverage decreases as stock price crash risk increases and (2) the negative effect of crash risk on operating leverage is more pronounced when firms are closer to the crash threshold or when managers face higher costs of stock price crashes. We empirically test the model predictions using a large sample of manufacturing firms in the US and find consistent results. Further analysis shows that higher levels of crash risk lead to a less sticky cost behavior. In addition, crash risk–driven operating deleveraging effectively reduces stock return volatility and enhances operating performance in subsequent years. Collectively, our findings reveal that crash-prone firms adopt a more flexible cost structure to delay stock price crashes and mitigate adverse outcomes.