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26 results

Redefining Financial Constraints: A Text-Based Analysis

Review of Financial Studies 2015 28(5), 1312-1352
We score 10-K text to obtain annual measures of financial constraints, with separate measures for firms reporting equity and debt financing issues. Equity market constraints are associated with firms funding growth opportunities, have more severe consequences for the firm following large unexpected negative shocks, and are likely driven by informational asymmetries. A significant population of firms reporting equity market constraints also declare that they possess material undisclosed proprietary information. Constraints in the debt markets are distinct and are linked to covenant violations. Our measures outperform others used in the literature in predicting investment cuts following negative shocks.

Product Market Synergies and Competition in Mergers and Acquisitions: A Text-Based Analysis

Review of Financial Studies 2010 23(10), 3773-3811
[We use text-based analysis of 10-K product descriptions to examine whether firms exploit product market synergies through asset complementarities in mergers and acquisitions. Transactions are more likely between firms that use similar product market language. Transaction stock returns, ex post cash flows, and growth in product descriptions all increase for transactions with similar product market language, especially in competitive product markets. These gains are larger when targets are less similar to acquirer rivals and when targets have unique products. Our findings are consistent with firms merging and buying assets to exploit synergies to create new products that increase product differentiation.]

Dynamic Interpretation of Emerging Risks in the Financial Sector

Review of Financial Studies 2019 32(12), 4543-4603
[We use computational linguistics to develop a dynamic, interpretable methodology that can detect emerging risks in the financial sector. Our model can predict heightened risk exposures as early as mid-2005, well in advance of the 2008 financial crisis. Risks related to real estate, prepayment, and commercial paper are elevated. Individual bank exposure strongly predicts returns, bank failures, and return volatility. We also document a rise in market instability since 2014 related to sources of funding and mergers and acquisitions. Overall, our model predicts the buildup of emerging risk in the financial system and bank-specific exposures in a timely fashion.]

The Information Content of IPO Prospectuses

Review of Financial Studies 2010 23(7), 2821-2864
[Using word content analysis, we decompose information in the initial public offering prospectus into its standard and informative components. Greater informative content, as a proxy for premarket due diligence, results in more accurate offer prices and less underpricing, because it decreases the issuing firm's reliance on bookbuilding to price the issue. The opposite is true for standard content. Greater content from high reputation underwriters and issuing firm managers, through Management's Discussion and Analysis, contribute to the informativeness of the prospectus. Our results suggest that premarket due diligence and disclosure by underwriters and issuers can serve as a substitute for costly bookbuilding.]

Disappearing Dividends, Catering, and Risk

Review of Financial Studies 2009 22(1), 79-116
[Fama and French (2001a) show that the propensity to pay dividends declines significantly between 1978 and 1999. We examine this "disappearing dividends" puzzle through the lens of risk and report two main findings: (i) Risk is a significant determinant of the propensity to pay dividends, and it explains roughly 40% of disappearing dividends; (ii) We find little support for the view that disappearing dividends reflects firms' catering to transient fads for dividends. Absent risk controls, proxies for fads matter, but these proxies are insignificant once we control for risk. Our results are robust to an extensive battery of robustness tests that vary samples, time periods, proxies for fads, the types of empirical tests, and the nature of payout decisions made by firms.]

Mutual Fund Competition, Managerial Skill, and Alpha Persistence

Review of Financial Studies 2018 31(5), 1896-1929
What economic forces limit mutual fund managers from generating consistent outperformance? We propose and test the hypothesis that buy-side competition from other funds matters. We make three contributions. First, we propose new style-based spatial methods to identify the customized rivals of each fund. Second, we construct dynamic, fundspecific measures of competition and generate measures of skill as a fund’s outperformance relative to its customized peers. Third, and finally, we show that funds outperforming their customized rivals generate future alpha when they face less competition. These results are economically significant and last for over four quarters.

Do fraudulent firms produce abnormal disclosure?

Journal of Corporate Finance 2017 43, 58-85
Using text-based analysis of 10-K MD&A disclosures, we find that fraudulent firms produce verbal disclosure that is abnormal relative to strong counterfactuals. This abnormal text predicts fraud out of sample, has a verbal factor structure, and can be interpreted to reveal likely mechanisms that surround fraudulent behavior. Using a conservative difference-based approach, we find evidence that fraudulent managers discuss fewer details explaining the sources of the firm's performance, while disclosing more information about positive aspects of firm performance. They also provide less content relating the disclosure to the managerial team itself. We also find new interpretable verbal support for the well-known hypothesis that managers commit fraud in order to artificially lower their cost of capital.

The Underwriter Persistence Phenomenon

Journal of Finance 2007 62(3), 1169-1206
This study presents new evidence that initial IPO returns have persistent underwriter‐specific components. These components cannot be explained by existing measures of underwriter quality, underwriter service, or controls for several known predictors of initial IPO returns. Tests that trace the roots of persistence most broadly support theories of asymmetric information among underwriters. I present such a model, and consistent with its predictions, I find that high underpricing underwriters (1) are responsible for a majority of the partial adjustment phenomenon, (2) make more informed analyst revisions, (3) experience superior market share growth, and (4) are more likely to serve an institutional clientele.

Leaky Director Networks and Innovation Herding

Review of Financial Studies 2026 39(1), 158-197 open access
We first document that, despite potential legal issues, overlapping directors are surprisingly prevalent among direct competitors. Using panel data regressions and plausibly exogenous shocks, we find that competing firms in markets with dense overlapping-director networks experience innovation herding, lose product differentiation, and, ultimately, perform poorly. Novel text-based network propagation tests of technologies show that intellectual property leakage plays a role as firms with dense overlapping director networks experience faster propagation of technologies to competitors. Our findings suggest a coordination problem where industry participants cannot stop rivals from earning small gains from leakage despite much larger industry-wide negative externalities.

Product Life Cycles in Corporate Finance

Review of Financial Studies 2022 35(9), 4249-4299
We develop a novel 10-K text-based model of product life cycles and examine firm investment policies. Conditioning on the life cycle substantially improves the power of q to explain investment and reveals a natural ordering of investments over the life cycle. While R&D and CAPX sensitivity are high early in the cycle, acquisitions arise as products mature, and divestitures and product extension investments arise as products decline. q-sensitivities that condition on the life cycle can vary by as much as 400% from traditional sensitivities. The life cycle framework further reveals an enriched relationship between competition, investment, and corporate profits.