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Splitting orders in overlapping markets: A study of cross-listed stocks

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2008 17(2), 145-174
Fragmented trading is widespread. Chowdhry and Nanda [Chowdhry, B., Nanda, V., 1991. Multimarket trading and market liquidity. Rev. Finan. Stud. 4, 483–511] show that some traders benefit by splitting orders across markets at the cost of small liquidity traders who, for exogenous reasons, only trade locally. We extend their model to analyze British and Dutch stocks with ADRs, which trade on both sides of the Atlantic for one or two hours each day. We predict that, in the presence of sufficient small liquidity trading, traders concentrate their trades in the overlapping period and split orders across markets. We document considerable empirical support. In the cross-section, we find order-splitting only for ADRs with most NYSE small liquidity trading. The evidence is (i) increased volatility, increased volume, and (weakly) higher liquidity supply in the overlap and (ii) positive correlation in order imbalance across markets. We further find that the common component in order imbalance has long-term price impact, which supports the notion that these order-splitters are informed traders.

Bank loan-loss provisioning, central bank rules vs. estimation: The case of Portugal

Journal of Financial Stability 2008 4(1), 1-22
A fair level of provisions on bad and doubtful loans is an essential input in mark-to-market accounting, and in the calculation of bank profitability, capital and solvency. Loan-loss provisioning is directly related to estimates of loan-loss given default (LGD). A literature on LGD on bank loans is developing but, surprisingly, it has not been exploited to address, at the micro level, the issue of provisioning at the time of default, and after the default date. For example, in Portugal, the central bank imposes a mandatory provisioning schedule based on the time period since a loan is declared ‘non-performing’. The dynamic schedule is ‘ad hoc’, not based on empirical studies. The purpose of the paper is to present an empirical methodology to calculate a fair level of loan-loss provisions, at the time of default and after the default date. To illustrate, a dynamic provisioning schedule is estimated with micro-data provided by a Portuguese bank on recoveries on non-performing loans. This schedule is then compared to the regulatory provisioning schedule imposed by the central bank.

Competitive effects of Basel II on US bank credit card lending

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2008 17(4), 478-508 open access
We analyze the potential competitive effects of the proposed Basel II capital regulations on US bank credit card lending. We find that bank issuers operating under Basel II will face higher regulatory capital minimums than Basel I banks, with differences due to the way the two regulations treat reserves and gain-on-sale of securitized assets. During periods of normal economic conditions, this is not likely to have a competitive effect; however, during periods of substantial stress in credit card portfolios, Basel II banks could face a significant competitive disadvantage relative to Basel I banks and nonbank issuers.

The rise of deferred tax assets in Japan: The role of deferred tax accounting in the Japanese banking crisis

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2008 46(2-3), 218-239
This paper provides evidence on the role of deferred taxes in the recent financial crisis among Japanese banks. Upon adoption of deferred tax accounting in FY1998, the major Japanese banks recognized net deferred tax assets of ¥6.6 trillion ($55 billion). Without these assets, the banks would have been insolvent. The evidence supports the conclusion that Japanese regulators used deferred tax accounting as part of a regulatory forbearance strategy, and that bank managers used these assets to bolster their banks’ regulatory capital. The results show how ostensibly similar accounting rules can be implemented very differently, and so have implications for IFRS.

Is the Obesity Epidemic a Public Health Problem? A Review of Zoltan J. Acs and Alan Lyles's Obesity, Business and Public Policy

Journal of Economic Literature 2008 46(4), 974-982
We review the recent but growing economic literature on the worldwide growth of obesity, relating the review to a recent anthology of articles—Obesity, Business and Public Policy. We discuss the competing explanations for the growth of obesity as well as the role of governments in attempting to limit it.

Determinants of deposit-insurance adoption and design

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2008 17(3), 407-438
This paper identifies factors that influence decisions about a country's financial safety net, using a comprehensive data set covering 180 countries during the 1960–2003 period. Our analysis focuses on how private interest-group pressures, outside influences, and political-institutional factors affect deposit-insurance adoption and design. Controlling for macroeconomic shocks, quality of bank regulations, and institutional development, we find that both private and public interests, as well as outside pressure to emulate developed-country regulatory schemes, can explain the timing of adoption decisions and the rigor of loss-control arrangements. Controlling for other factors, political systems that facilitate intersectoral power sharing dispose a country toward design features that accommodate risk-shifting by banks.

The only game in town: Stock-price consequences of local bias☆

Journal of Financial Economics 2008 90(1), 20-37
Theory suggests that, in the presence of local bias, the price of a stock should be decreasing in the ratio of the aggregate book value of firms in its region to the aggregate risk tolerance of investors in its region. Using data on U.S. states and Census regions, we find clear-cut support for this proposition. Most of the variation in the ratio of interest comes from differences across regions in aggregate book value per capita. Regions with low population density—e.g., the Deep South—are home to relatively few firms per capita, which leads to higher stock prices via an “only-game-in-town” effect.

Evidence of Management Discrimination Among Analysts during Earnings Conference Calls

Journal of Accounting Research 2008 46(3), 627-659
ABSTRACT This paper considers the potential for public information disclosures to complement the existing private information of financial analysts. In such a setting, analysts allowed to participate during earnings conference calls by asking questions receive public signals that can facilitate the generation of new and valuable private information for the asking analyst. Realizing these public signals are valuable for the asking analyst, managers can use their discretion to discriminate among analysts by granting more participation to more favorable analysts. I use post–Regulation Fair Disclosure conference call transcripts to document that the probability of an analyst asking a question during an earnings conference call is increasing in the favorableness of the analyst's outstanding stock recommendation. I also find that downgrades are associated with decreases in access to management during the conference call relative to other recommendation change activity. Analyst prestige moderates these effects. Favorable and prestigious analysts have higher participation probabilities than favorable and unprestigious analysts. Further, downgrades result in participation decreases only for unprestigious analysts. These findings are consistent with practitioner and regulatory concerns that managers discriminate among analysts by allowing more management access to more favorable analysts.

Production in Entrepreneurial Firms: The Effects of Financial Constraints on Labor and Capital

Review of Financial Studies 2008 21(2), 543-577
[I model the contrasting capital-labor decisions of financially constrained and unconstrained firms. I show that financially restricted firms use relatively more labor than physical capital because informed employees provide more efficient financing than uninformed capital suppliers. I demonstrate that constrained firms cannot easily attract new employees to replace existing staff. Their greater employee retention aligns owner-worker incentives and encourages workers to make firm-specific investments. Constrained firms, however, gradually suffer from their inability to replace low-quality workers, such that their relative labor productivity decreases over time. Empirical tests utilizing instrumental variables confirm several implications of the theory.]

What Caused the Bank Capital Build-up of the 1990s?

Review of Finance 2008 12(2), 391-429
Large U.S. banks dramatically increased their capitalization during the 1990s, to the highest levels in more than 50 years. We document this buildup of capital and evaluate several potential motivations. Our results support the hypothesis that regulatory innovations in the early 1990s weakened conjectural government guarantees and enhanced bank counterparties' incentives to monitor and price default risk. We find no evidence that a bank holding company's (BHC's) market capitalization increases with its asset volatility prior to 1994. Thereafter, the data display a strong cross-sectional relation between capitalization and asset risk.