This paper studies an empirical model of spatial competition applied to gasoline markets. The main feature is to specify commuting paths as the “locations'' of consumers in a Hotelling-style model. As a result, spatial differentiation depends in an intuitive way on the structure of the road network and the direction of traffic flows. The model is estimated using panel data on the Quebec City gasoline market and used to evaluate the consequences of a recent vertical merger. Difference-in-difference and counterfactual simulation methods are compared, and the results, to a large extent, validate the assumptions of the demand model.
We quantify the distortionary effects of nexus tax laws on Amazon's distribution network investments between 1999 and 2018. We highlight the role of two features of the expansion of Amazon's network: densification of the network of distribution facilities and vertical integration into package sortation. Densification results in a reduction in the cost of shipping orders, but comes at the expense of higher facility operating costs in more expensive areas and lower scale economies of processing shipments. Nexus laws furthermore generate additional sales tax liabilities as the network grows. Combining data on household spending across online and offline retailers with detailed data on Amazon's distribution network, we quantify these trade‐offs through a static model of demand and a dynamic model of investment. Our results suggest that Amazon's expansion led to significant shipping cost savings and facilitated the realization of aggregate economies of scale. We find that abolishing nexus tax laws in favor of a non‐discriminatory tax policy would induce the company to decentralize its network, lowering its shipping costs. Non‐discriminatory taxation would also entail lower revenue, however, as tax‐inclusive prices would rise, resulting in a fall in profit overall. This drop and the decline in consumer welfare from higher taxes together fall short of the increases in tax revenue and rival profit, suggesting that the abolishment of nexus laws would lead to an increase in total welfare.
Numerous recently uncovered cartels operated along the supply chain, with firms at one end facilitating collusion at the other—hub-and-spoke arrangements. These cartels are hard to rationalize because they induce double marginalization and higher costs. We examine Canada’s alleged bread cartel and provide the first comprehensive analysis of hub-and-spoke collusion. Using court documents and pricing data, we make three contributions: (i) we show that collusion was effective, increasing inflation by about 50 percent; (ii) we provide evidence that collusion existed at both ends of the supply chain; and (iii) we develop a model explaining why this form of collusion arose.
American Economic Review2014104(10), 3365-3396open access
We examine the relationship between concentration and price dispersion using variation induced by a merger in the Canadian mortgage market. Since interest rates are determined through a search and negotiation process, consolidation weakens consumers' bargaining positions. We use reduced-form techniques to estimate the mergers' distributional impact, and show that competition benefits only consumers at the bottom and middle of the transaction price distribution, and that mergers reduce the dispersion of prices. We illustrate that these effects can be explained by the presence of search frictions, and that the average effect of mergers on rates underestimates the increase in market power.
Journal of Political Economy2019127(4), 1550-1598open access
We provide a framework for empirical analysis of negotiated-price markets. Using mortgage market data and a search and negotiation model, we characterize the welfare impact of search frictions and quantify the role of search costs and brand loyalty for market power. Search frictions reduce consumer surplus by $12/month/consumer, 28 percent of which can be associated with discrimination, 22 percent with inefficient matching, and 50 percent with search costs. Banks with large consumer bases have margins 70 percent higher than those with small consumer bases. The main source of this incumbency advantage is brand loyalty; however, price discrimination based on search frictions accounts for almost a third.
We revisit one of the results in Cicala (2015) and show that the previously estimated large and significant effects of US electricity restructuring on fuel procurement are not robust to the presence of outliers. Using methodologies from the robust statistics literature, we estimate the effect to be less than one-half of the previous estimate and not statistically different from zero. The robust methodology also identifies as outliers the plants owned by a single company whose coal contracts were renegotiated before discussions about restructuring even started.
Review of Financial Studies202538(11), 3284-3328open access
We study the role of brokers in selection markets. We find broker-clients in the Canadian mortgage market are observationally different from branch-clients. They finance larger loans with more leverage and longer amortization. We build and estimate a model of mortgage demand to disentangle three possible explanations for these riskier product choices: (1) selection on observables, (2) unobserved borrower preferences for riskier loans, and (3) a causal effect of brokers. Although we find that brokers influence product choices, the main reason borrowers choose high-leverage products is unobserved preferences. Borrowers prefer larger loans and brokers facilitate qualification for them.