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Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Housing

Review of Financial Studies 2005 18(2), 535-567
I show that investment in housing plays a crucial role in explaining the patterns of cross-sectional variation in the composition of wealth and the level of stockholdings observed in portfolio composition data. Due to investment in housing, younger and poorer investors have limited financial wealth to invest in stocks, which reduces the benefits of equity market participation. House price risk crowds out stockholdings, and this crowding out effect is larger for low financial net-worth. In the model as in the data leverage is positively correlated with stockholdings.

Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Housing

Review of Financial Studies 2005 18(2), 535-567
I show that investment in housing plays a crucial role in explaining the patterns of cross-sectional variation in the composition of wealth and the level of stockholdings observed in portfolio composition data. Due to investment in housing, younger and poorer investors have limited financial wealth to invest in stocks, which reduces the benefits of equity market participation. House price risk crowds out stockholdings, and this crowding out effect is larger for low financial net-worth. In the model as in the data leverage is positively correlated with stockholdings.

Evidence on the Benefits of Alternative Mortgage Products

Journal of Finance 2013 68(4), 1663-1690
Alternative mortgage products have been identified by many as culprits in the financial crisis. However, because of their lower initial mortgage payments relative to loan amount, they may be a valuable tool for households that expect higher and more certain future labor income, and that wish to smooth consumption over the life‐cycle. Using U.K. household‐level panel data, this paper provides evidence in support of this hypothesis and highlights other important benefits of alternative mortgages, including portfolio diversification, tax benefits, and a reduction in the transaction costs incurred in housing transactions.

Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle

Review of Financial Studies 2005 18(2), 491-533
This article solves a realistically calibrated life cycle model of consumption and portfolio choice with non-tradable labor income and borrowing constraints. Since labor income substitutes for riskless asset holdings, the optimal share invested in equities is roughly decreasing over life. We compute a measure of the importance of human capital for investment behavior. We find that ignoring labor income generates large utility costs, while the cost of ignoring only its risk is an order of magnitude smaller, except when we allow for a disastrous labor income shock. Moreover, we study the implications of introducing endogenous borrowing constraints in this incomplete-markets setting.

A Model of Mortgage Default

Journal of Finance 2015 70(4), 1495-1554 open access
In this paper, we solve a dynamic model of households' mortgage decisions incorporating labor income, house price, inflation, and interest rate risk. Using a zero‐profit condition for mortgage lenders, we solve for equilibrium mortgage rates given borrower characteristics and optimal decisions. The model quantifies the effects of adjustable versus fixed mortgage rates, loan‐to‐value ratios, and mortgage affordability measures on mortgage premia and default. Mortgage selection by heterogeneous borrowers helps explain the higher default rates on adjustable‐rate mortgages during the recent U.S. housing downturn, and the variation in mortgage premia with the level of interest rates.

Aging in Place, Housing Maintenance, and Reverse Mortgages

Review of Economic Studies 2020 87(4), 1799-1836 open access
We study the role of housing wealth in financing retirement consumption. In our model retirees: 1. derive utility benefits from remaining in their home (aging in place); and 2. choose in each period whether to maintain their house. The evidence that we present shows that these features are important in explaining the saving decisions of the elderly. The costs and the maintenance requirement of reverse mortgages (RMs) reduce (or eliminate) the benefits of the loans for retirees who wish to do less maintenance. We evaluate the impact of different loan features on retirees’ utility, cash-flows to lenders, and to the government agency that provides mortgage insurance. We show that combining RMs with insurance against a forced home sale (e.g. due to a move to a nursing home) is Pareto improving and can lead to increased demand for the loans due to product complementarities.

Housing Consumption and Investment: Evidence from Shared Equity Mortgages

Review of Financial Studies 2022 35(8), 3525-3573 open access
We exploit a U.K. government-sponsored product and provide evidence on shared equity mortgages. The analysis shows how the interaction of house price growth and leverage regulation promotes product adoption. Following an increase in the equity limit, households use the additional financing to buy more expensive properties rather than reduce leverage. Equity used as a complement to debt is likely less beneficial for financial stability than when used as a substitute. Equity borrowers are less likely to change lenders when refinancing their senior debt. Finally, we measure the equity provider returns, which are affected by selection and undervaluation at repayment.

Corporate Pension Plans as Takeover Deterrents

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2013 48(4), 1119-1144 open access
We use UK data to show that firms that sponsor a defined-benefit pension plan are less likely to be targeted in an acquisition and, conditional on an attempted takeover, they are less likely to be acquired. Our explanation is that the uncertainty in the value of pension liabilities is a source of risk for acquirers of the firm's shares, which works as a takeover deterrent. In support of this explanation we find that these same firms are more likely to use cash when acquiring other firms, and that the announcement of a cash acquisition is associated with positive announcement effects.

Structuring Mortgages for Macroeconomic Stability

Journal of Finance 2021 76(5), 2525-2576
We study mortgage design features aimed at stabilizing the macroeconomy. We model overlapping generations of borrowers and an infinitely lived risk‐averse representative lender. Mortgages are priced using an equilibrium pricing kernel derived from the lender's endogenous consumption. We consider an adjustable‐rate mortgage with an option that during recessions allows borrowers to pay only interest on their loan and extend its maturity. The option stabilizes consumption growth over the business cycle, shifts defaults to expansions, and enhances welfare. The cyclical properties of the contract are attractive to a risk‐averse lender so that the mortgage can be provided at a relatively low cost.

Longevity risk, retirement savings, and financial innovation

Journal of Financial Economics 2012 103(3), 507-529
Over the last couple of decades unprecedented increases in life expectancy have raised important concerns for retirement savings. We solve a life-cycle model with longevity risk, which can be hedged through endogenous saving and retirement decisions. We investigate the benefits of financial assets designed to hedge the shocks to survival probabilities. When longevity risk is calibrated to match forward-looking projections, those benefits are substantial. This lends support to the idea that such hedging should be pursued by defined benefit pension plans on behalf of their beneficiaries. Finally, we draw implications for optimal security design.