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Lead and Mortality

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2014 96(3), 458-470
This paper examines the effect of waterborne lead exposure on infant mortality in American cities over the period 1900 to 1920. Variation across cities in water acidity and the types of service pipes, which together determined the extent of lead exposure, identifies the effects of lead on infant mortality. In 1900, a decline in exposure equivalent to an increase in pH from 6.675 (25th percentile) to 7.3 (50th percentile) in cities with lead-only pipes would have been associated with a decrease in infant mortality of 7% to 33%, or at least twelve fewer infant deaths per 1,000 live births.

The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and Its Lessons for COVID-19

Journal of Economic Literature 2022 60(1), 41-84 open access
This article reviews the global health and economic consequences of the 1918 influenza pandemic, with a particular focus on topics that have seen a renewed interest because of COVID-19. We begin by providing an overview of key contextual and epidemiological details as well as the data that are available to researchers. We then examine the effects on mortality, fertility, and the economy in the short and medium run. The role of non-pharmaceutical interventions in shaping those outcomes is discussed throughout. We then examine longer-lasting health consequences and their impact on human capital accumulation and socioeconomic status. Throughout the paper we highlight important areas for future work.

Canary in a Coal Mine: Infant Mortality and Tradeoffs Associated with Mid-20th Century Air Pollution

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2024 106(3), 698-711
This paper examines the health tradeoffs associated with the historical expansion in coal-fired electricity generation in the United States. We combine newly digitized data on all major coal-fired power plants for the period 1938–1962 with two complementary difference-in-differences strategies. Coal-fired plants imposed large negative health externalities that were partially offset by the benefits of local electricity generation. The health impacts varied widely according to initial electricity access and evolved as the stock of generating capacity expanded over the sample period. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for both current and future payoffs when designing environmental regulation.

The Value of Health Insurance during a Crisis: Effects of Medicaid Implementation on Pandemic Influenza Mortality

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2024 106(5), 1393-1402
This paper studies how better access to public health insurance affects infant mortality during pandemics. The analysis combines cross-state variation in mandated eligibility for Medicaid with two influenza pandemics that arrived shortly before and after the program’s introduction in 1965. We find that better access to public health insurance in high-eligibility states substantially reduced pandemic infant mortality. The reductions in pandemic infant mortality are too large to be attributable solely to new Medicaid recipients, suggesting that expanded access to public health insurance helped mitigate disease transmission among the broader population.

Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century

Journal of Political Economy 2016 124(1), 105-159 open access
This paper examines the temperature-mortality relationship over the course of the twentieth-century United States both for its own interest and to identify potentially useful adaptations for coming decades. There are three primary findings. First, the mortality impact of days with mean temperature exceeding 807F declined by 75 percent. Almost the entire decline occurred after 1960. Second, the diffusion of residential air conditioning explains essentially the entire decline in hot day–related fatalities. Third, using Dubin and McFadden’s discrete continuous model, the present value of US consumer surplus from the introduction of residential air conditioning is estimated to be $85– $185 billion (2012 dollars).

Convergence in Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from High Temperatures and Mortality, 1900–2004

American Economic Review 2015 105(5), 247-251
This paper combines panel data on monthly mortality rates of US states and daily temperature variables for over a century (1900-2004) to explore the regional evolution of the temperature-mortality relationship and documents two key findings. First, the impact of extreme heat on mortality is notably smaller in states that more frequently experience extreme heat. Second, the difference in the heat-mortality relationship between hot and cold states declined over 1900-2004, though it persisted through 2004. Continuing differences in the mortality consequences of hot days suggests that health motivated adaptation to climate change may be slow and costly around the world.