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Subsidizing the Stork: New Evidence on Tax Incentives and Fertility

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2005 87(3), 539-555
This paper exploits the introduction of a pronatalist transfer policy in the Canadian province of Quebec that paid up to C$8,000 to families having a child. I implement a quasi-experimental strategy by forming treatment and control groups defined by time, jurisdiction, and family type. The incentive was available broadly, rather than to a narrow population as studied in previous work, providing an exceptional opportunity to investigate heterogeneous responses. I find a strong effect of the policy on fertility, and some evidence of a heterogeneous response that may help reconcile these results with previous estimates.

Push and Pull: Disability Insurance, Regional Labor Markets, and Benefit Generosity in Canada and the United States

Journal of Labor Economics 2019 37(S2), S289-S323
Disability insurance take-up has expanded substantially in the past 20 years in the United States while shrinking in Canada. We empirically assess these trends by measuring the strength of the “push” from weak labor markets versus the “pull” of more generous benefits. Using an instrumental variables strategy comparing benefit changes across country, age, and year, we find that both benefits and regional wages matter. Simulations suggest that the upswing in disability insurance take-up in the United States would be reversed, dropping the caseload by 41% if benefits and wages had followed the growth path observed in Canada.

How Does Job‐Protected Maternity Leave Affect Mothers’ Employment?

Journal of Labor Economics 2008 26(4), 655-691
We examine the impact of maternity leaves on the period mothers are away from work postbirth and the likelihood they return to their prebirth employer. We use the introduction and expansion of statutory job-protected maternity leave entitlements in Canada to identify these effects. We find that modest leave entitlements of 17-18 weeks do not change the amount of time mothers spend away from work. In contrast, longer leaves do have a substantive impact on behavior, leading to more time spent at home. We also find that all entitlements we examined increase job continuity with the prebirth employer.

Child Benefits, Maternal Employment, and Children's Health: Evidence from Canadian Child Benefit Expansions

American Economic Review 2009 99(2), 128-132
Industrial countries typically provide income transfers to families with young children. Traditionally, these family benefit programs were motivated by distributional concerns--families with children faced higher expenditure needs than other families, and a concern for horizontal equity led to transfers. Throughout the 1990s, however, many countries introduced benefits aimed at improving labor market incentives for mothers with young children. In the United States, the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) has played this role, but similar programs exist in Europe, Canada, and elsewhere. Much effort has been expended on evaluating the labor market impact of child benefits. However, less work has examined the impact of these programs on broader outcomes such as the mental and physical health of both the children and the parents, outcomes that follow from the traditional equity motivation for child benefits. In this paper, we review and extend some recent results studying the expansion of family benefits in Canada. In particular, we exploit a change that occurred in the province of Manitoba to highlight the effects of child benefits on both labor supply and family outcomes.

Universal Child Care, Maternal Labor Supply, and Family Well‐Being

Journal of Political Economy 2008 116(4), 709-745
The growing labor force participation of women with small children in both the U.S. and Canada has led to calls for increased public financing for childcare. The optimality of public financing depends on a host of factors, such as the “crowd-out ” of existing childcare arrangements, the impact on female labor supply, and the effects on child well-being. The introduction of highly-subsidized universally-accessible childcare in Quebec in the late 1990s provides an opportunity to address these issues. We carefully analyze the impacts of Quebec’s “five dollar per day childcare ” program on childcare utilization, labor supply, and child (and parent) outcomes among two-parent families. We find strong evidence of a shift into new childcare use, although approximately one third of the newly reported use appears to come from women who previously worked and had informal arrangements. The labor supply impact is highly significant, and comparable in magnitude to previous credible estimates. Finally, we uncover evidence that children are worse off in a variety of behavioral and health dimensions, ranging from aggression to motor-social skills to illness. Our analysis also suggests that the new childcare program led to more hostile, less consistent parenting, worse parental health, and lower-quality parental relationships.

Job Transitions and Employee Earnings after Acquisitions: Linking Corporate and Worker Outcomes

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2026 open access
This paper connects changes in employer characteristics through job transitions to employee earnings following mergers and acquisitions. Using firm balance sheet data linked to individual earnings data in Canada and a matched difference-in-differences design, we find that earnings of workers at target firms decrease after M&As relative to control workers, largely driven by those who move to other firms. Workers leaving targets move to larger and more profitable firms, but still experience wage declines. These decreased earnings are also concentrated among workers with longer tenure. These results are consistent with workers losing valuable match-specific premia after M&A-induced job transitions.