Theoretical models have long recognized the role of investor disagreements in the marketplace, but little evidence is documented regarding how belief dispersion affects trading activities in the broad equity market. Using over three decades of data from a survey of US households, we introduced a novel measure of household macroeconomic belief dispersion and document its positive relationship with market-wide stock trading volume, even after controlling for an array of professional analysts’ belief dispersion. Results are more pronounced for the belief dispersion among households who are more likely to own stocks. Furthermore, we show that the household belief dispersion is priced in the cross-section of stock returns, whereas that among professional analysts is not.

The aim of this study was to retrospectively analyze 18F-FDG positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F-FDG PET/CT) metabolic variables, programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) and phosphorylated signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (p-STAT3) tumor expression, and other factors as predictors of disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) (stage IA-IIIA) who underwent surgical resection. We still lack predictor of immune checkpoint (programmed cell death-1 [PD-1]/PD-L1) inhibitors. Herein, we investigated the correlation between metabolic parameters from 18F-FDG PET/CT and PD-L1 expression in patients with surgically resected LUAD.Seventy-four patients who underwent 18F-FDG PET/CT prior to treatment were consecutively enrolled. The main 18F-FDG PET/CT-derived variables were primary tumor maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), metabolic tumor volume (MTV), and total lesion glycolysis (TLG). Surgical tumor specimens were analyzed for PD-L1 and p-STAT3 expression using immunohistochemistry. Correlations between immunohistochemistry results and 18F-FDG PET/CT-derived variables were compared. Associations of PD-L1 and p-STAT3 tumor expression, 18F-FDG PET/CT-derived variables, and other factors with DFS in resected LUAD were evaluated.All tumors were FDG-avid. The cutoff values of low and high SUVmax, MTV, and TLG were 12.60, 14.87, and 90.85, respectively. The results indicated that TNM stage, PD-L1 positivity, and high 18F-FDG PET/CT metabolic volume parameters (TLG ≥90.85 or MTV ≥14.87) were independent predictors of worse DFS in resected LUAD. No 18F-FDG metabolic parameters associated with PD-L1 expression were observed (chi-square test), but we found that patients with positive PD-L1 expression have significantly higher SUVmax (P = .01), MTV (P = .00), and TLG (P = .00) than patients with negative PD-L1 expression.18F-FDG PET/CT metabolic volume parameters (TLG ≥90.85 or MTV ≥14.87) were more helpful in prognostication than the conventional parameter (SUVmax), PD-L1 expression was an independent predictor of DFS in patients with resected LUAD. Metabolic parameters on 18F-FDG PET/CT have a potential role for 18F-FDG PET/CT in selecting candidate LUAD for treatment with checkpoint inhibitors.

This paper proposes “implied stochastic volatility models” designed to fit option-implied volatility data and implements a new estimation method for such models. The method is based on explicitly linking observed shape characteristics of the implied volatility surface to the coefficient functions that define the stochastic volatility model. The method can be applied to estimate a fully flexible nonparametric model, or to estimate by the generalized method of moments any arbitrary parametric stochastic volatility model, affine or not. Empirical evidence based on S&P 500 index options data show that the method is stable and performs well out of sample.

This paper examines how the target's customer concentration affects merger performance. We find that the acquirer purchasing a customer-concentrated firm experiences significantly lower stock market returns and worse long-run operating performance. The effect is more pronounced when customers face lower switching costs or the target undertakes a higher level of relationship-specific investments, exhibits higher cash volatility, or is acquired by a less well-known company. Further analysis shows that the negative association is mainly driven by corporate customers, while relatively safe government customers moderate the effect. We also find that shared major customers, overconfident CEOs, and poor corporate governance are more likely to increase the likelihood of customer-concentrated acquisitions. Overall, our findings suggest that higher customer concentration leads to lower value creation in mergers.

In the presence of business groups, the expropriation through related party transactions (RPTs) is common and costly to minority shareholders. Using the setting of India's RPT voting rule, I find that a majority‐of‐minority shareholder voting mechanism helps mitigate expropriation. Minority shareholders actively raise their voice against RPT resolutions. A difference‐in‐differences analysis reveals that shareholder voting has a significant deterrence effect on RPT volume. I also find that stock markets react positively to the voting rule's passage, and that the rule makes Indian firms more attractive to foreign institutional investors.

Postcrisis regulations apply stricter liquidity rules to both money market funds (MMFs) and banks, requiring MMFs to do more overnight lending and banks to borrow longer-term. MMFs and banks resolve this dilemma by developing a “bundling” strategy across overnight and longer term markets. In particular, MMFs increase longer term funding and charge a lower rate to banks that have recently accommodated MMFs’ overnight depositing needs. Such cross-market reciprocity is stronger between MMFs and foreign banks, which depend on MMFs for dollar funding more than U.S. banks do. MMFs with lower liquidity buffers and higher flow volatility are more likely to engage in bundling.

I examine the source and welfare implications of differences in household consumption diversity. I document the existence of a positive correlation between household variety and expenditure to motivate a simple framework where households purchase more varieties to counteract diminishing returns to quantity but face location-specific costs of accessing variety. Estimating the model with Indian household data, I find that the increase in dietary diversity between 1983 and 2009 was mostly due to lower costs of accessing variety, which resulted in large welfare gains. Urban households also benefit from a lower cost of accessing varieties than rural households.

Taking advantage of the different trading behaviors of investors on same-issuer bonds, we show that informed trading lies at the core of the momentum effect for corporate bonds. We split the firm-level bond cross-section into top (nontop) bonds that are characterized by higher (lower) volumes of institution-sized trades. We show that top bonds attract more informed trading and transmit information faster than nontop bonds. We design specific top and nontop bond momentum strategies to capitalize on this informational heterogeneity. The results indicate that fast news spreading yields short-lived momentum in top bonds, whereas momentum in nontop bonds is strong and drawn-out due to slow information diffusion. These differences are concentrated in bond-level information-intensive periods and are not explained by differences in liquidity levels, systematic risk (including liquidity risk), bond characteristics, and market states. In particular, bond-level liquidity affects the momentum effect only by altering the rate at which news spreads.

U.S. multinational enterprises repatriated over $300 billion under the 2004 tax holiday. The repatriated funds can improve debt financing environment of nonrepatriating firms, especially those that are financially constrained. We document that such an externality of the tax holiday increases debt financing and consequently investments for financially constrained nonrepatriating firms relative to less constrained nonrepatriating firms. Using private loan market data, we further confirm a link from repatriated funds to increased debt financing for financially constrained nonrepatriating firms. Overall, the 2004 tax holiday appears to have benefited the U.S. economy through its positive externality on the debt market.