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The Impact of Uncertainty on Investment: Empirical Challenges and a New Estimator

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2024 59(1), 307-338 open access
This article proposes a new method for examining the impact on a firm’s investment of uncertainty reflected in its stock-return volatility. We simultaneously address the endogeneity of uncertainty and mismeasurement in Tobin’s Q , but earlier empirical work often neglects one of the two issues. Our nonparametric estimates further suggest that the relation between investment and uncertainty is significantly decreasing and strongly concave. This result contrasts with the existing literature that widely adopts linear regressions. Ignoring nonlinearity or measurement error in Q can lead to a substantial estimation bias. However, the bias due to the endogeneity of uncertainty is small.

The impact of IPO approval on the price of existing stocks: Evidence from China

Journal of Corporate Finance 2018 50, 109-127
This paper investigates whether initial public offering (IPO) announcements have any price impact on existing stocks in China. Using the Chinese IPO approval regime as a natural experiment, we find that IPO approval announcements have a negative price impact on stocks. This price effect appears to be a drift in equilibrium prices and is more pronounced on stocks that are more correlated with the IPO. These findings support an expectation-based downward-sloping demand curve hypothesis. We also document negative price reactions around the IPO listing day, which is consistent with the findings by previous authors. Further evidence rules out the signal effect of IPO approval announcements. In sum, IPO approvals can influence prices of other stocks by shaping the expectation of a change in the supply-demand equilibrium without actual trading of IPO shares.

Financial executive qualifications, financial executive turnover, and adverse SOX 404 opinions

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2010 50(1), 93-110
This study attempts to provide a comprehensive understanding of the interrelationships among chief financial officers’ (CFOs’) professional qualifications, SOX Section 404 internal control weakness, CFOs’ turnover, CFOs’ qualification improvement, and correction of material weaknesses. We find that firms receiving initial adverse SOX 404 opinions for 2004 have less qualified CFOs. Adverse SOX 404 opinion recipients experience more CFO turnover in 2005, and these firms are more likely to hire CFOs having improved qualifications. Results show that simply hiring a new CFO is not associated with SOX 404 opinion improvement. Opinion improvement requires hiring a better qualified CFO.

Customer concentration and corporate risk-taking

Journal of Financial Stability 2021 54, 100890 open access
This study empirically investigates the relationship between customer concentration and corporate risk-taking. We find that overall customer concentration significantly reduces corporate risk-taking. However, the relationship varies across different settings. Specifically, the negative relationship between customer-base concentration and corporate risk-taking is only significantly present in more marketized regions, more competitive industries, firms with lower market shares, less innovative and non-state-owned firms, and those without major governmental or state-owned-enterprise customers. Moreover, our panel threshold models indicate significant threshold effects. When customer-base concentration is below the first threshold (low concentration level), it is positively associated with corporate risk-taking. When customer-base concentration increases to above the second threshold, the association turns significantly negative, suggesting that a highly concentrated customer base prompts suppliers to take more precautionary measures and avoid excessive risk-taking. Overall, our findings suggest that the concentration of a supplier’s customer base significantly impacts its risk-taking behaviours.

Government connections and financial constraints: Evidence from a large representative sample of Chinese firms

Journal of Corporate Finance 2015 32, 271-294 open access
We examine the role of firms' government connections, defined by government intervention in CEO appointment and the status of state ownership, in determining the severity of financial constraints faced by Chinese firms. We demonstrate that government connections are associated with substantially less severe financial constraints (i.e., less reliance on internal cash flows to fund investment), and that the sensitivity of investment to internal cash flows is higher for firms that report greater obstacles to obtaining external funds. We also find that those large non-state firms with weak government connections, likely the engine for innovation in the coming years in China, are especially financially constrained, due perhaps to the formidable hold that their state rivals have on financial resources after the ‘grabbing-the-big-and-letting-go-the-small’ privatization program in China. Our empirical results suggest that government connections play an important role in explaining Chinese firms' financing conditions, and provide further evidence on the nature of the misallocation of credit by China's dominant state-owned banks.

Intertemporal imitation behavior of interbank offered rate submissions

Journal of Banking & Finance 2021 132, 106219
This paper addresses a problem that may damage the reliability of an interbank offered rate (IBOR) system. Using evidence from the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR), we show that some SHIBOR panel banks imitate peers’ quotes after observing them on the next business day. The strength of the intertemporal behavior can be measured by a “Signed Active-minus-Stationary (SAmS)” index, which significantly predicts SHIBOR changes. Moreover, we find that the consequences of the imitation behavior are not fully perceived and understood by the market, and, as a result, SHIBOR-linked derivatives are mispriced. Our findings suggest that regulators of a poll-based interest rate benchmark should pay attention to the intertemporal imitation of submissions, in addition to bad faith collusion. The SAmS index can be utilized in the quality control of panel bank submissions.

Tracing investors' minds: Investors’ inquiries and key audit matter reporting

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2026 open access
ABSTRACT This study investigates whether auditors incorporate investor information demand when determining key audit matter (KAM) disclosures. We measure investor information demand using a unique dataset of investor inquiries submitted through investor interactive platforms (IIPs) established by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. At the topic level, we find that auditors are more likely to disclose a given topic as a KAM when investors raise more inquiries on that topic. At the aggregate level, a higher proportion of inquiries devoted to accounting issues is associated with both a greater number of KAMs and longer KAM disclosures. Importantly, following the introduction of KAM reporting, managers’ footnote disclosures become more aligned with heightened investor inquiries, reinforcing our interpretation that the documented effects reflect auditors’ responses to investor inquiries rather than merely mirroring managerial disclosure changes. Overall, our findings suggest that auditors incorporate investor information demand into KAM disclosures.

Does mutual fund illiquidity introduce fragility into asset prices? Evidence from the corporate bond market

Journal of Financial Economics 2022 143(1), 277-302
Open-end corporate bond mutual funds invest in illiquid assets while providing liquid claims to shareholders. Does such liquidity transformation introduce fragility to the corporate bond market? To address this question, we create a novel bond-level latent fragility measure based on asset illiquidity of mutual funds holding the bond. We find that corporate bonds bearing higher fragility subsequently experience higher return volatility and more outflows-induced mutual fund selling over the period of 2006–2019. Using the COVID-19 crisis as a natural experiment, we find that bonds with higher precrisis fragility experienced more negative returns and larger reversals around March 2020.