Evidence from the laboratory and the field has uncovered both underreaction and overreaction to new information. We provide new experimental evidence on the underlying mechanisms of under‐ and overreaction by comparing how people make inferences and revise forecasts in the same information environment. Participants underreact to signals when inferring about underlying states, but overreact to the same signals when revising forecasts about future outcomes—a phenomenon we term “the inference‐forecast gap.” We show that this gap is largely driven by different simplifying heuristics used in the two tasks. Additional treatments suggest that the choice of heuristics is affected by the similarity between statistics in the information environment and the statistic elicited by the belief‐updating problem.

We examine how Confucian culture operates as an informal institution by fostering relational contracts that substitute for formal legal frameworks in shaping corporate behavior. Using data on historical Confucian academies near firms’ headquarters in China, we find that greater cultural exposure is associated with higher investment in stakeholder relationships—measured by social contribution, stakeholder protection, courtesy expenses, patenting, and trade credit. These effects persist after controlling for human capital and alternative cultural influences, and weaken in regions with stronger formal institutions. Our findings highlight the enduring role of culture in supporting trust-based governance when formal contracting is limited.

Horizontal directors, board members who also hold board seats in same-industry peers, are common in U.S. corporations. We posit that horizontal directorships can enhance the efficiency of corporate investment decisions. Horizontal directors enjoy access to current information flows, which help boards fulfill their roles of advising and monitoring – a form of learning from peers. We find that horizontal directorships are negatively related to investment inefficiency, and with over-investment in particular. Exogenous shocks to board composition provide a causal interpretation to our findings. Our paper contributes to a nuanced view of horizontal directors by highlighting their contribution to mitigate excessive investment.

We study the production effects of one of the largest bank branch expansion programs in history, implemented by the government of India during the 1980s. Combining policy-driven variation with newly-digitized data on bank lending and crop prices at the district-year level, we do not find evidence for a significant shift in agricultural output and inputs on average. Greater bank presence does promote resilience to climate risk, however, by attenuating the effect of lagged rainfall shocks on output. This effect operates via changes in the incidence of cropping during the dry winter season, which makes use of costly irrigation resources.

We propose a restrictiveness measure for economic models based on how well they fit predefined synthetic data. This measure, together with a measure for how well the model fits real data, outlines a Pareto frontier, where models that rule out more regularities, yet capture the regularities that are present in real data, are preferred. To illustrate our approach, we evaluate the restrictiveness of models in two laboratory settings—certainty equivalents and initial play—and one field setting—takeup of microfinance in Indian villages. The restrictiveness measure reveals insights about each, including that some economic models with only a few parameters are very flexible.

We investigate how to improve efficiency using regression adjustments with covariates in covariate-adaptive randomizations (CARs) with imperfect subject compliance. Our regression-adjusted estimators, which are based on the doubly robust moment for local average treatment effects, are consistent and asymptotically normal even with heterogeneous probabilities of assignment and misspecified regression adjustments. We propose an optimal but potentially misspecified linear adjustment and its further improvement via a nonlinear adjustment, both of which lead to more efficient estimators than the one without adjustments. We also provide conditions for nonparametric and regularized adjustments to achieve the semiparametric efficiency bound under CARs.

After growing steadily for decades, average U.S. household energy consumption began declining in the mid-2000s. Using household-level data from the Residential Energy Consumption Survey and Current Population Survey between 1990 and 2020, we decompose overall changes in per household consumption into three components: average income, cross-household income distribution, and consumption habits, which include energy efficiency. Growth of average income caused consumption to increase by 11%, and rising income inequality reduced consumption by 8%, nearly entirely offsetting the effect of income growth. Changes in habits also reduced consumption. Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate an unexpected effect of rising income inequality: climate and air quality improvements valued at $9 billion in 2020 due to lower electricity consumption. The results indicate the importance of coordinating policies that address inequality and pollution.

Downside risks are ubiquitous and can profoundly impact firm operations and valuation. Failure to adequately assess and manage target firms' downside risks hinders acquirers' ability to integrate and manage these businesses. This article introduces a novel measure of firms' downside risk similarity (DRS) based on risk factor descriptions and examines its implications for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) outcomes. We first validate that the measure is distinct from existing similarity measures and that it captures similarity in firms' potential significant downside. Using the new measure, we find that the market reacts more positively to deals in which acquirers and targets share more downside risks. Additional analyses show that this beneficial effect of DRS is driven primarily by risks that are idiosyncratic or firm‐specific, consistent with these risks requiring acquirers' relevant expertise to manage. Last, we document that in deals with more similar downside risks, the acquirers experience fewer risk profile changes and are less likely to suffer from adverse outcomes, such as deal‐specific goodwill impairment, divestitures, and significant profitability declines. Overall, we conclude that DRS plays a significant role in the M&A process.