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The Health and Welfare Effects of Increases in Workers’ Compensation Benefits

Journal of Labor Economics 2023 41(3), 615-642
This paper estimates the causal impacts of workers’ compensation income benefits on workers’ health and welfare outcomes. Using claims data from 2004 to 2016, I explore the variation in benefits due to a reform of New York workers’ compensation that increased the maximum weekly benefits. I find that a $77 increase in the weekly benefits led to an additional 3.4 days off work. Medical utilization did not increase. Each extra day off work decreased the reinjury likelihood by 2.9%. The current benefit level in New York is close to optimal in balancing payer cost and worker health outcomes.

Does Opinion Shopping Impair Auditor Independence and Audit Quality?

Journal of Accounting Research 2006 44(3), 561-583
This study investigates how companies' threats to dismiss auditors and their engagement in opinion shopping influence auditor independence and audit quality, which in turn affect misstatements in financial statements. It also examines how outsiders' reactions to auditor switching influence opinion shopping. The results indicate that neither the predecessor auditor's nor the successor auditor's independence is compromised by dismissal threats and opinion shopping. Further, the successor auditor's audit quality exceeds the predecessor auditor's audit quality. In addition, auditor switching decreases potential understatements and increases potential overstatements in financial statements, and the capital market's and the successor auditor's reactions to auditor switching reduce the benefits of opinion shopping to companies. Additionally, the study sheds some light on the potential effects of both the Sarbanes-Oxley's restriction on non-audit services and mandatory auditor rotation or retention. The paper also derives a rich set of empirical implications.

Understanding the Puzzling Risk-Return Relationship for Housing

Review of Financial Studies 2013 26(4), 877-928
[Standard theory predicts a positive relationship between risk and return, yet recent data show that housing returns vary positively with risk in some markets but negatively in others. This paper rationalizes these cross-market differences in the risk-return relationship for housing, and in so doing, explains the puzzling negative relationship. The paper shows that when the current house provides a hedge against the risk associated with the future housing consumption, households are willing to accept a lower return to compensate for risk, thus weakening the positive risk-return relationship. Further, in markets with less elastic housing supply and a growing population, hedging incentives can be sufficiently strong to make the relationship negative. The empirical analysis confirms these predictions, suggesting that hedging incentives, housing supply, and urban growth are indeed central to understanding the risk-return relationship for housing.]

Understanding the Puzzling Risk-Return Relationship for Housing

Review of Financial Studies 2013 26(4), 877-928
Standard theory predicts a positive relationship between risk and return, yet recent data show that housing returns vary positively with risk in some markets but negatively in others. This paper rationalizes these cross-market differences in the risk-return relationship for housing, and in so doing, explains the puzzling negative relationship. The paper shows that when the current house provides a hedge against the risk associated with the future housing consumption, households are willing to accept a lower return to compensate for risk, thus weakening the positive risk-return relationship. Further, in markets with less elastic housing supply and a growing population, hedging incentives can be sufficiently strong to make the relationship negative. The empirical analysis confirms these predictions, suggesting that hedging incentives, housing supply, and urban growth are indeed central to understanding the risk-return relationship for housing.

The Effects of Price Risk on Housing Demand: Empirical Evidence from U.S. Markets

Review of Financial Studies 2010 23(11), 3889-3928
[This article examines how price risk affects housing demand. It identifies two relevant channels: a financial risk effect that reduces demand, and a hedging effect that increases demand since current homes may hedge future housing costs. The latter dominates when hedging incentives are strong, namely when the likelihood of moving up the housing ladder is high and the tendency to move across markets is low. For households with weak hedging incentives, the article finds negative effects of price risk on the timing and size of home purchases, but positive effects for households with strong hedging incentives.]

The Effects of Price Risk on Housing Demand: Empirical Evidence from U.S. Markets

Review of Financial Studies 2010 23(11), 3889-3928 open access
This article examines how price risk affects housing demand. It identifies two relevant channels: a financial risk effect that reduces demand, and a hedging effect that increases demand since current homes may hedge future housing costs. The latter dominates when hedging incentives are strong, namely when the likelihood of moving up the housing ladder is high and the tendency to move across markets is low. For households with weak hedging incentives, the article finds negative effects of price risk on the timing and size of home purchases, but positive effects for households with strong hedging incentives. The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: [email protected]., Oxford University Press.

Random Choice and Private Information

Econometrica 2016 84(6), 1983-2027
We consider an agent who chooses from a set of options after receiving some private information. This information however is unobserved by an analyst, so from the latter’s perspective, choice is probabilistic or random. We provide a theory in which information can be fully identified from random choice. In ad-dition, the analyst can perform the following inferences even when information is unobservable: (1) directly compute ex-ante valuations of option sets from ran-dom choice and vice-versa, (2) assess which agent has better information by using choice dispersion as a measure of informativeness, (3) determine if the agent’s beliefs about information are dynamically consistent, and (4) test to see if these beliefs are well-calibrated or rational. ⇤ I am deeply indebted to both Faruk Gul and Wolfgang Pesendorfer for their continuous advice, guidance and encouragement. I am very grateful to Stephen Morris for some highly valuable and insightful discussions.

Globalization, Innovation, and Margins of Sourcing

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2026
This paper uncovers that input tariff reductions result in less domestic innovation, but standard models of trade ensure a positive correlation between importing and innovation. Hence, the paper develops a dynamic framework with a task-specific laboraugmenting productivity and a non-homothetic import demand system to rationalize this finding. The model implies that input liberalization enables firms to use cheaper intermediate imports as a substitute for self-made inputs, a strategy that decreases marginal production costs but also discourages firms from investing in their own inhouse varieties. Finally, the paper compares the effectiveness of trade and innovation policies in boosting aggregate productivity growth.

Bayesian Identification: A Theory for State-Dependent Utilities

American Economic Review 2019 109(9), 3192-3228
We provide a revealed preference methodology for identifying beliefs and utilities that can vary across states. A notion of comparative informativeness is introduced that is weaker than the standard Blackwell ranking. We show that beliefs and state-dependent utilities can be identified using stochastic choice from two informational treatments, where one is strictly more informative than another. Moreover, if the signal structure is known, then stochastic choice from a single treatment is enough for identification. These results illustrate novel identification methodologies unique to stochastic choice. Applications include identifying biases in job hiring, loan approvals, and medical advice. (JEL D11, D82, D83, J23, M51)

Is Money Smart? A Study of Mutual Fund Investors' Fund Selection Ability

Journal of Finance 1999 54(3), 901-933
A previous study finds evidence to support selection ability among active fund investors for equity funds listed in 1982. Using a large sample of equity funds, I find evidence that funds that receive more money subsequently perform significantly better than those that lose money. This effect is short‐lived and is largely but not completely explained by a strategy of betting on winners. In the aggregate, there is no significant evidence that funds that receive more money subsequently beat the market. However, it is possible to earn positive abnormal returns by using the cash flow information for small funds.