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Margins and Hedge Fund Contagion
Funding risk measures the extent to which a fund can borrow money by posting collateral. Using a novel measure of funding risk based on futures margins, we are able to empirically identify the mechanism by which changes in funding risk affect the likelihood of contagion. An increase in margins of the order of magnitude observed during the subprime crisis increases the probability of contagion among certain types of funds by up to 34%. Our analysis shows that some types of hedge funds are more vulnerable to contagion than others. Our results also suggest that policies that limit the magnitude of changes in margins over short periods of time may reduce the likelihood of contagion among hedge funds.
The 2007–2009 financial crisis and bank opaqueness
Doubts about the accuracy with which outside investors can assess a banking firm’s value motivate many government interventions in the banking market. Although the available empirical evidence is somewhat mixed, the recent financial crisis has reinforced a common assessment that banks are unusually opaque. This paper examines bank equity’s trading characteristics during “normal” periods and two “crisis” periods between 1993 and 2009. We find only limited (mixed) evidence that banks are unusually opaque during normal periods. However, consistent with theory, crises raise the adverse selection costs of trading bank shares relative to those of nonbank control firms. A bank’s balance sheet composition significantly affects its equity opacity, but we cannot detect specific balance sheet categories that have robust effects.
High-frequency trading in the stock market and the costs of options market making
We investigate how high-frequency trading (HFT) in equity markets affects options market liquidity. We find that increased aggressive HFT activity in the stock market leads to wider bid–ask spreads in the options market through two main channels. First, options market makers’ quotes are exposed to sniping risk from HFTs exploiting put–call parity violations. Second, informed trading in the options market further amplifies the impact of HFT in equity markets on the liquidity of options by simultaneously increasing the options bid–ask spread and intensifying aggressive HFT activity in the underlying market.
Informational Efficiency of Cryptocurrency Markets
This study employs variance ratios (VRs) to assess the roles of regulation and liquidity on cryptocurrency market efficiency, focusing on crypto-assets subject to varying degrees of regulation. Our findings reveal that cryptocurrencies supervised by FinCEN-licensed exchanges (IEO-L) exhibit market efficiency similar to SEC-regulated traditional stock offerings (IPOs). Conversely, noncompliant crypto-assets display higher market inefficiency. We also establish a connection between regulatory compliance and issuing entity reputation mechanisms. Our results indicate that compliance with existing regulatory norms enhances efficiency and reduces investor risks in crypto-assets. Furthermore, assets voluntarily adhering to regulatory norms can attain efficiency akin to government-regulated assets.
Nonstandard Errors
In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data‐generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence‐generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty—nonstandard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for more reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer‐review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.