We show that the performance of the new factor models of Hou et al. (2015) and Fama and French (2015) depends crucially on how their investment factor is constructed. Both models use growth in total assets to measure investment. Their ability to price the cross-section of returns decreases significantly when the investment factor is constructed using traditional investment measures, or measures that also account for investment in intangibles. In contrast, we find that factors based on growth in inventory and accounts receivable contain the bulk of the pricing information in the asset growth factor. We show evidence that the superior performance of the asset growth factor seems to be attributable to its ability to capture aggregate shocks to equity financing costs.

We provide a systematic empirical assessment of the Minsky hypothesis that business fluctuations stem from irrational swings in expectations. Using predictable firm-level forecast errors, we build an aggregate index of irrational expectations and use it to provide three sets of results. First, we show that our index predicts aggregate credit cycles. Next, we show that these predictable credit cycles drive cycles in firm-level debt issuance and investment and similar cycles between financially constrained and unconstrained firms, as Minsky predicts. Finally, we show more pronounced cycles in firm-level financing and investment for firms with ex ante more optimistic expectations.