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Farmers' Cooperatives as Behavior toward Risk
Farmers' Cooperatives as Behavior Toward Risk
Precautionary Saving and the Timing of Taxes
This paper analyzes the effects of government debt and income taxes on consumption and saving in a world of infinitely lived households having uncertain and heterogeneous incomes. The special structure of the model allows exact aggregation across households despite incomplete markets. The effects of government debt are shown to be substantial, roughly comparable to those resulting from finite horizons, and crucially dependent on the length of time until the debt is repaid. Also, anticipated changes in taxes are shown to cause anticipated changes in consumption. Finally, an index of fiscal stance is derived.
Standard Risk Aversion
This paper introduces the concept of standard risk aversion. A von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function has standard risk aversion if any risk makes a small reduction in wealth more painful (in the sense of an increased reduction in expected utility) also makes any undesirable, independent risk more painful. It is shown that, given monotonicity and concavity, the combination of decreasing absolute risk aversion and decreasing absolute prudence is necessary and sufficient for standard risk aversion. Standard risk aversion is shown to imply not only Pratt and Zeckhauser's 'proper risk aversion" (individually undesirable, independent risks always being jointly undesirable) , but also that being forced to face an undesirable risk reduces the optimal investment in a risky security with and independent return. Similar results are established for the effect of broad class of increases in one risk on the desirability of (or optimal investment in) a second, independent risk.
Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large
The theory of precautionary saving is shown in this paper to be isomorphic to the Arrow-Pratt theory of risk aversion, making possible the application of a large body of knowledge about risk aversion to precautionary saving, and more generally, to the theory of optimal choice under risk. In particular, a measure of the strength of precautionary saving motive analogous to the Arrow-Pratt measure of risk aversion is used to establish a number of new propositions about precautionary saving, and to give a new interpretation of the Oreze-Modigliani substitution effect.
Challenges in Constructing a Survey-Based Well-Being Index
Precautionary Saving and the Timing of Taxes
This paper analyzes the effects of governeent debt and income taxes on consumption and saving in a world of infinitely-lived households having uncertain and heterogeneous incomes. The special structure of the model allows exact aggregation across households despite incomplete mmrkets. The effects of government debt are shown to be substantial, roughly comparable to those resulting from finite horizons, and crucially dependent on the length of time until the debt is repaid. Also, anticipated changes in taxes are shown to cause anticipated changes in consumption. Finally, an index of fiscal stance is derived.
On the Concavity of the Consumption Function
At least since Keynes (1935), many economists have had the intuition that the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth declines as wealth increases. Nonetheless, standard perfect-certainty and certainty equivalent versions of intertemporal optimizing models of consumption imply a marginal propensity to consume that is unrelated to the level of household wealth. We show that adding income uncertainty to the standard optimization problem induces a concave consumption function in which, as Keynes suggested, the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth or transitory income declines with the level of wealth.
Sticky-Price Models and Durable Goods
The inclusion of a durable goods sector in sticky-price models has strong and unexpected implications. Even if most prices are flexible, a small durable goods sector with sticky prices may be sufficient to make aggregate output react to monetary policy as though most prices were sticky. In contrast, flexibly priced durables with sufficiently long service lives can undo the implications of standard sticky price models. In a limiting case, flexibly priced durables cause monetary policy to have no effect on aggregate output. Our analysis suggests that durable goods prices are the most relevant data for calibrating price rigidity.