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Terrorism Financing, Recruitment, and Attacks

Econometrica 2022 90(4), 1711-1742
This paper investigates the effect of terrorism financing and recruitment on attacks. I exploit a Sharia‐compliant institution in Pakistan, which induces unintended and quasi‐experimental variation in the funding of terrorist groups through their religious affiliation. The results indicate that higher terrorism financing, in a given location and period, generate more attacks in the same location and period. Financing exhibits a complementarity in producing attacks with terrorist recruitment, measured through data from Jihadist‐friendly online fora and machine learning. A higher supply of terror is responsible for the increase in attacks and is identified by studying groups with different affiliations operating in multiple cities. These findings are consistent with terrorist organizations facing financial frictions to their internal capital market.

Deposit Insurance and Depositor Behavior: Evidence from Colombia

Review of Financial Studies 2023 36(7), 2721-2755 open access
This paper studies the effect of deposit insurance on depositor behavior. Our theoretical framework integrates insights from public and financial economics and predicts that (1) deposit insurance induces bunching at the threshold in the deposit distribution and (2) an increase in the insurance threshold promotes deposit growth, particularly higher for individuals bunching at the initial limit. We exploit a large and unexpected increase in the Colombian insurance together with monthly depositor-level records from a major bank to test these predictions. We validate the existence of bunching in deposits and quantify the heterogeneous effect of deposit insurance on individual deposit growth.

Liquidity Risk and Long-Term Finance: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Review of Economic Studies 2022 89(3), 1278-1313 open access
Banks in low-income countries face severe liquidity risk due to volatile deposits, which destabilize their funding, and dysfunctional liquidity markets, which induce expensive interbank and central bank lending. Such liquidity risk dissuades the transformation of short-term deposits into long-term loans and deters long-term investment. To validate this mechanism, we exploit a Sharia-compliant levy in Pakistan, which generates unintended and quasi-experimental variation in liquidity risk, with data from the credit registry and firm imports. We find that banks with a stronger exposure to liquidity risk lower their supply of long-term finance, which reduces the long-term investment of connected firms.