Robert P. Flood, Peter M. Garber; The Linkage Between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volu

This paper examines cash management bill announcements in an event study framework and finds that segmentation in the Treasury bill market is widespread and not limited to bills maturing across month-ends. Announcements of cash management bills, which represent unexpected additional supplies of outstanding Treasury bills, cause the yields on these bills to rise significantly relative to yields on adjacent maturity bills. This paper also finds, consistent with other studies, that segmentation is greater at the short end of the bill market.

A recent article by Bernanke [1984] tests the rational expectations-permanent income hypothesis using panel data on automobile expenditures. He finds no evidence refuting the hypothesis. This paper incorporates a threshold adjustment process into Bernanke's model. Estimations based on a subset of the data used by Bernanke reveal evidence that resale market imperfections and credit market constraints have important effects on automobile expenditures.

This paper develops a simple model of exchange rate behavior under a target zone regime. It shows that the expectation that monetary policy will be adjusted to limit exchange rate variation affects exchange rate behavior even when the exchange rate lies inside the zone and is thus not being defended actively. Somewhat surprisingly, the analysis of target zones turns out to have a strong formal similarity to problems in option pricing and investment under uncertainty.

The paper presents empirical tests of the (S, s) model of inventory behavior using aggregate retail trade data. Estimation and testing are based on the probability distributions of inventories derived by Caplin [1985]. The excess volatility of retailers' demand over their consumers' demand, and the "forgetfulness" of inventories under (S, s) are emphasized. Test results indicate that the time series properties of deliveries and sales are consistent with (S, s) and not a quadratic cost model. Finally, when autoregressions of inventories are given an (S, s) rather than a stock adjustment interpretation, traditional empirical problems such as low speeds of adjustment are explained.

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