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The Burden of Debt

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1961 43(2), 139
M /[ESSRS. Bowen, Davis, and Kopf have shown 1 that real burden of a project using up resources in can be shifted to generations by internal borrowing, providing one defines in a particular way. It just as easy to prove that all politicians are economists or that all economists are dunces, provided one defines economist in a particular way. But even if I call tail of a sheep a leg that will not turn sheep into quintapeds. The issue of course terminological rather than substantive. It nevertheless one of utmost importance because conclusion reached by Bowen et al., although not incorrect on their own definitions, bound to be misinterpreted as meaning what it seems to be saying in English and as indeed implying that most politicians understand economics better than economists most, if not all, of whom are dunces. Bowen, Davis, and Kopf are right when they agree that there absolutely nothing wrong with standard argument of modern economists that real burden of a debt can not be shifted to generations if it defined as the total amount of private consumption goods given up by community at moment of time borrowed funds are spent. But President Eisenhower appears convinced that costs of debt-financed public projects can be passed on to generations. Like Rabbi in story, Bowen et al. want to say that he too right, but in their enthusiasm they even say that purpose of their note is to suggest that in instance it President who -in at least one highly important sense right,' 2 thus clearly implying that economists are wrong. To make President appear right, Bowen et al. redefine present generation to mean people who lend money to finance project, and they redefine future generation to mean people who pay taxes that are used to repay principal and interest on loans. The perversity of redefinitions obscured by supposing that lenders (this generation), are all 2I years old at time of execution of project when they lend money and by supposing that they are repaid 44 years later, on their 6sth birthday, with funds obtained at that time from 2Iyear-old taxpayers (the next generation). The burden thereby shifted from this generation' to the next generation. What has been proved, if we obstinately insist in expressing conclusion in English, that it possible to shift burden from Lenders to Taxpayers or, we might say, fromn Lowells to Thomases. The Lowells are better off and Thomases are worse off than if Lowells had been taxed to raise money for project in first place. The red herring nature of having Lowells lend money now (so that we can call them generation) and having Thomases pay taxes in (so that they can be called generation) jumps to eye if we note that shifting of real burden of project from Lowells to Thomases (or indeed of any other burden) could take place just as well at time of project (or at any other time) by simply taxing Thomases instead of Lowells. No economist, so far as I am aware, has ever denied possibility of borrowing or of lending or of taxing some people instead of others, or of any combinations of such oper-

Comparability of Estimates of the Industrial Distribution of Employment

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1961 43(1), 36
SINCE about I950 the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been publishing a monthly series showing the industrial distribution of the employed nonfarm labor force.' In addition to supplying current estimates on nonagricultural employment, the figures have been compiled from I9I9 and yield, therefore, a continuous forty-year series on the changing pattern of the industrial distribution of employment.2 major value of this series is in evaluating current employment trends, serving as an important supplement to the Census Bureau's monthly estimate of aggregate employment. BLS figures can also be used effectively to study the changing industrial pattern of employment.3 BLS estimates have several distinct advantages over the usual statistical series used to evaluate long-run changes in employment patterns. Typically such series rely exclusively upon decennial data, to the exclusion of either monthly or yearly figures on the industrial composition of the work force.4 major weakness in such a dependence stems from the obliteration of cyclical changes in the industrial composition of employment, and what may be only short-run changes can too easily be interpreted as long-run movements.5 For example, decennial data for I930-50 show that there has been a long-run increase in employment in the tertiary industries, and this fits the pattern which Colin Clark and others hypothesize.6 However, yearly data on employment patterns, such as those of the BLS, indicate that there is considerable cyclical movement in the industrial composition of employment, with the result that service occupations rise as a percentage of total employment in recessions or periods of less than full employment. Each of the recent Census years (I930, I940, and I950) had a sizeable portion of unemployment, and it is by no means clear that the long-run trend of the tertiary industries is entirely consistent with the industrial pattern that emerges when decennial data are used. However, it is not the purpose of the present paper to discuss the degree to which decennial data are truly indicative of long-run trends, nor to evaluate the effectiveness of BLS data for estimating short-run movements. present intent is merely to contrast the industrial distribution of employment obtained from BLS data with two distributions derived from the decennial data. More specifically, the distribution derived from BLS figures is compared with two estimates prepared by researchers associated with the National Bureau of Research. First, the Carson-Barger estimates for the labor force7 and, second, John W. Kendrick's more recent employment figures for the industrial distribution 8 are juxtaposed with BLS figures. Both the Carson-Barger and the Ken'Bureau of Labor Statistics, United States Department of Labor, Handbook of Labor Statistics, 1950 Edition, Bulletin ioi6 (Washington, 1950), I-5; Measurement of Industrial Employment, Monthly Labor Review, 76 (September 1953), 968-73. 2 Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, and Earnings, Annual Supplement (June 1958). 'Ewan Clague, The Shifting Industrial and Composition of the Work Force During the Next Ten Years, Daily Labor Report (Washington, 1958), Thursday, January i6, 1958, Special Supplement, i-II; reprinted in Monthly Labor Review, 8I (July 1958), I676-9I. ' Cf. Simon Kuznets, Quantitative Aspects of the Growth of Nations, III. Industrial Distribution of National Product and Labor Force, Development and Cultural Change, vi (July 1957), 19-32; Colin Clark, Conditions of Progress (3rd ed., New York, 1957); P. Whelpton, Occupational Groups in the United States, I820I920, Journal of the American Statistical Association (September I926), 335-43; and Daniel Carson, Changes in the Industrial Composition of Manpower Since the Civil War, Studies in Income and Wealth, Vol. xi (New York, I949), 46-I34. For an instance of such misinterpretation, see George Stigler, Trends in Employment in the Service Industries (Princeton, 1956). 6 Colin Clark, Conditions of Progress (London, 1957) ; and A. G. B. Fisher, Economic Implications of Material Progress, International Labour Review, LVII (July

ACCOUNTANCY, SYSTEMATIZED LEARNING, AND ECONOMICS.

The Accounting Review 1961 36(4), 564-576
Abstract The aim of this article first to indicate very broadly the principal areas of systematized learning, and secondly to compare and contrast accountancy and economics within the framework of these areas. Methodology and content are two integrated aspects of any area of systematized learning, so it should be made clear that sometimes dichotomizing accountancy and economic studies into either their content or methodology is merely an analytical device. It has been clarified that economics is mainly concerned with the study of behavior, while accountancy is concerned with the study of the quantification and analysis of the resultants of behavior. Metaphysics may seem a far cry from either accountancy or economic studies, yet the basic postulates of science, including the postulate of the orderliness of natural and social phenomena, stem from metaphysical analysis. Epistemology embraces studies of the nature and criteria of human knowledge, including the role of definitions, postulates, as well as inductive and deductive analyses. Both accountancy and economics have some stake in the development of metaphysics, but much more stake in the development of epistemology. In the area of accountancy the ethics principal is most often that of the practicing accountant. On the other hand, the problem of ethical behavior in economics almost always involves the behavior of others, namely the behavior of the makers of economic policy.