Abstract. This paper deals with the accounting for equity investments by a life insurance company. Various procedures for recognizing unrealized changes in market values of securities in its investment portfolio are analyzed. These range from direct recognition of market values to the method currently employed by Canadian life insurance companies which involves extensive smoothing. Summary statistics are suggested that describe the properties of the resulting accounting numbers obtained from various smoothing procedures. These summary statistics are viewed as compact, cost effective ways of summarizing the effects of the procedures for financial statement readers. The second part of the paper describes how a particular user group can obtain a ranking among various accounting alternatives. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (Saaty 1980) is proposed for combining the judgments of different individuals into a group preference. The feasibility of the method is illustrated using a small pilot study to rank various proposals concerning the accounting treatment of life insurance companies' equity investments.

Résumé. Cet article traite de la comptabilité pour les investissements en actions d'une compagnie d'assurance‐vie. On y analyse différentes procédures permettant de comptabiliser des changements non réalisés dans les valeurs du marché des titres de son portefeuille d'investissements. Ces procédures s'échelonnent de la comptabilisation directe des valeurs du marché à la méthode couramment utilisée par les compagnies canadiennes d'assurance‐vie et qui consiste en un lissage complet. On propose des statistiques sommaires qui décrivent les propriétés des chiffres comptables obtenus à partir des diverses procédures de lissage. On considère ces statistiques sommaires comme étant des moyens compacts et économiques de résumer les effets des procédures pour des lecteurs d'états financiers. La deuxième partie de l'article décrit comment un groupe d'utilisateurs particulier peut obtenir une classification des possibilités comptables. On suggère le processus analytique de hiérarchie (Saaty 1980) pour combiner les jugements de différentes personnes dans un groupe de préférence. On illustre par une petite étude‐pilote la faisabilité de la méthode pour classifier diverses propositions concernant le traitement comptable des investissements en actions des compagnies d'assurance‐vie.

In this paper we investigate the reasons for the growth in the female labor force in America during the twentieth century. In our research, we study the longer-term trends since 1900 and conduct a more intensive examination of developments after the Second World War. On the basis of our work, we conclude that rising real wages accounted for 60% of the total growth in the female labor force. Half of this wage effect in expanding labor supply was the fertility-reducing consequence of a higher female wage.

Abstract. There is often evidence of confusion between two forms of the constant percentage learning curve model: the cumulative average and the individual unit forms. Failure to distinguish between the two models can lead to their misuse and to potentially serious errors of estimation. A precise statement of the difference between the two clarifies the errors of misspecification. This note provides an analytical comparsion of the two models and addresses empirical estimation issues. Résumé. On a souvent la preuve de la confusion entre deux formules de modèle de la courbe d'apprentissage à pourcentage constant: celle de la moyenne cumulative et celle de l'unité individuelle. Le fait de ne pas distinguer les deux modèles peut conduire à une mauvaise utilisation et éventuellement à de sérieuses erreurs d'estimation. Un examen précis de la différence entre les deux peut clarifier les erreurs de spécification. Cet article présente une comparaison analytique des deux modèles et traite des questions d'estimation empirique.

[This paper considers a repeated principal agent relationship where the principal is risk neutral, the agent is risk averse, the principal can borrow or save at a fixed interest rate, and the agent discounts future consumption. It is shown that memory plays a very strong role in every Pareto-optimal contract. Sufficient conditions for Pareto-optimal contracts to exhibit rising or falling wages are identified. Finally, it is shown that the restriction of the agent's access to credit is necessary to achieve a Pareto-optimal outcome. In particular, under every Pareto-optimal contract for every outcome of every period the agent would choose to save some of his wage if he could.]

The first-order approach to principal-agent problems involves relaxing the constraint that the agent choose an action which is utility maximizing to require instead only that the agent choose an action at which his utility is at a stationary point. Although more mathematically tractable, this approach is generally invalid. This paper identifies sufficient conditions-the monotone likelihood ratio condition and convexity of the distribution function condition-for the first-order approach to be valid. The Pareto-optimal wage contract is shown to be nondecreasing in output under these same conditions. MIRRLEES [5] WAS THE FIRST to point out that the standard method for analyzing the principal-agent problem is not generally correct. This method, the so-called first-order approach, involves weakening the constraint that the agent choose a utility-maximizing action to require instead only that the agent choose an action at which his utility is at a stationary point. The resulting problem is more mathematically tractable. However, as Mirrlees [5] has shown, necessary conditions for a contract to solve the first-order program are not generally even necessary conditions for the valid program. Therefore qualitative propositions about the nature of the Pareto-optimal contract derived from the first-order approach are not in general valid. This has motivated researchers to try to identify classes of cases where the first-order approach is valid.

Economists have often found it useful to look at the average length of an unemployment spell in evaluating labor market conditions and in considering the labor market experience of the unemployed. Usually this statistic has to be estimated from grouped observations on interrupted (incomplete) unemployment spells. This paper is a comparative study of some nonparametric and parametric methods of estimating this quantity using Australian Department of Social Security data on unemployment benefit recipients.

This paper derives the exact finite sample distribution of the two-stage generalized least squares (GLS) estimator in a multivariate linear model with general linear parameter restrictions. This includes the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model as a special case and generalizes presently known exact results for the latter system. The usual classical assumptions are made concerning nonrandom exogenous variables and normally distributed errors. The theoretical results of this paper are made possible by the author's development of a matrix fractional calculus. This operator calculus is the main theoretical tool of the paper and may be used to solve a wide range of other unsolved problems in econometric distribution theory. IN THE EARLY 1960's Zellner [10] developed a two-stage GLS estimator for the coefficients in a linear multivariate system that is now popularly known as the SUR model. This two-stage procedure has since been used in many empirical applications. GLS also forms the basis of other commonly used estimators both in linear models with heteroscedastic or autocorrelated errors and in simultaneous equation systems where it leads to three stage least squares (3SLS). In spite of extensive research and perhaps surprisingly in view of the popularity of GLS methods in empirical work, the exact finite sample distribution of the SUR estimator is known only in highly specialized cases. These cases effectively restrict attention to two equation systems and models with orthogonal regressors [2]. Existing distribution theory is even more limited in the case of other commonly used GLS estimators, such as the two-stage estimator in linear models with heteroscedastic errors. Here, only low order moment formulae are known and then only in the simplest two sample setting. The research underlying the present paper is motivated by the deficiencies outlined above. Our initial object of study was the exact distribution of the SUR estimator in the general case. But the methods we have developed open the way to an exact distribution theory for econometric estimators in a much wider setting than the SUR model. The present paper will derive the exact finite sample distribution of the two-stage GLS estimator in the multivariate linear model subject to general linear parameter restrictions. This generalizes all presently known distribution theory for the SUR model itself. Two important specializations of our results will be illustrated in detail: the unrestricted multivariate linear model; and the Zellner model with pairwise orthogonal regressors. The analytical results reported here are made possible by the introduction of a fractional matrix calculus. This calculus is developed in terms of the action of

Carl Icahn, Irwin Jacobs, Carl Lindner, David Murdock, Victor Posner, and the late Charles Bluhdorn are usually portrayed as corporate ‘raiders’. The evidence here, however, shows that between 1977 and 1982 when it was first announced that they had purchased stock in a given firm, stock prices on average increased significantly. The investors' activities in target firms for the two years following the initial stock purchase are likewise inconsistent with ‘raiding’. We discuss two hypotheses that are consistent with the evidence: first, these investors improve the management of target firms; second, they are systematically able to identify under-priced stocks.

This paper considers the aggregation of discrete distributed lags in the spirit of Houthakker and Johansen. Well-known distributed lag models in econometrics are shown to arise from aggregation across heterogeneous microeconomic units. The technique of analysis is based on the statistical theory of compound distributions. The paper goes on to consider how consistently estimated macro distributed lags may be decomposed into two components which represent, respectively, the microeconomic response and the heterogeneity in that response. Related problems of identification and estimation and the interpretive value of the approach are also discussed and illustrations provided.