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Regionalism and Multilateralism: A Political Economy Approach

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1998 113(1), 227-251
Preferential trading arrangements are analyzed from the viewpoint of the “new political economy” that views trade policy as being determined by lobbying of concentrated interest groups. Two conclusions are reached: first, that trade-diverting preferential arrangements are more likely to be supported politically; and second, that such preferential arrangements could critically change domestic incentives so multilateral liberalization that is initially politically feasible could be rendered infeasible by a preferential arrangement. The larger the trade diversion resulting from the preferential arrangement, the more likely this will be the case.

Fiscal Year Ends and Nonlinear Incentive Contracts: The Effect on Business Seasonality

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1998 113(1), 149-185
Salesperson and executive compensation contracts typically specify a nonlinear relationship between firm revenues and pay. These agents therefore have incentive to manipulate prices, influence the timing of customer purchases, and vary effort over their firms' fiscal years. This paper empirically establishes results consistent with agents' focusing on performance over the fiscal year. Most notably, in addition to varying with the calendar business cycle, manufacturing firms' sales are higher at the end of the fiscal year, and lower at the beginning, than they are in the middle. Further evidence is found in fiscal-year price movements and patterns in the industry variation of fiscal-year effects.

Glamour, value and the post-acquisition performance of acquiring firms

Journal of Financial Economics 1998 49(2), 223-253
This paper uses a methodology robust to recent criticisms of standard long-horizon event study tests to show that bidders in mergers underperform while bidders in tender offers overperform in the three years after the acquisition. However, the long-term underperformance of acquiring firms in mergers is predominantly caused by the poor post-acquisition performance of low book-to-market “glamour” firms. We interpret this finding as evidence that both the market and the management overextrapolate the bidder's past performance (as reflected in the bidder's book-to-market ratio) when they assess the desirability of an acquisition.

Technological Change and the Skill Acquisition of Young Workers

Journal of Labor Economics 1998 16(4), 718-755
Since technological change influences the rate at which human capital obsolesces and also increases the uncertainty associated with human capital investments, training may increase or decrease at higher rates of technological change. Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we find that production workers in manufacturing industries with higher rates of technological change are more likely to receive formal company training. At higher rates of technological change, the training gap between the more and less educated narrows, low‐skilled nonproduction workers receive significantly more training than higher‐skilled nonproduction workers, and the proportion of individuals receiving training increases.

A note on the impact of options on stock return volatility

Journal of Banking & Finance 1998 22(9), 1181-1191
This paper measures the impact of option introductions on the return variance of underlying stocks. Past research generally finds a significant reduction in stock return variance following the listing of options through 1986. Using a more extensive sample, I compare changes in the return variance of optioned stocks to changes in the return variance of a control group. Since the average change in the control group is statistically indistinguishable from the average change in the optioned stocks, I conclude that option introductions do not significantly affect stock return variance.