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Entrepreneurship

Journal of Labor Economics 2005 23(4), 649-680
The theory below is that entrepreneurs must be jacks-of-all-trades who need not excel in any one skill but are competent in many. A model of the choice to become an entrepreneur is presented. The primary implication is that individuals with balanced skills are more likely than others to become entrepreneurs. Using data on Stanford alumni, the predictions are tested and found to hold. Those who have varied work and educational backgrounds are much more likely to start their own businesses than those who have focused on one role at work or concentrated in one subject at school.

Determinants of Managerial Earnings Guidance Prior to Regulation Fair Disclosure and Bias in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts*

Contemporary Accounting Research 2005 22(4), 867-914
Abstract Prior to Regulation Fair Disclosure (“Reg FD”), some management privately guided analyst earnings estimates, often through detailed reviews of analysts' earnings models. In this paper I use proprietary survey data from the National Investor Relations Institute to identify firms that reviewed analysts' earnings models prior to Reg FD and those that did not. Under the maintained assumption that firms conducting reviews guided analysts' earnings forecasts, I document firm characteristics associated with the decision to provide private earnings guidance. Then I document the characteristics of “guided” versus “unguided” analyst earnings forecasts. Findings demonstrate an association between several firm characteristics and guidance practices: managers are more likely to review analyst earnings models when the firm's stock is highly followed by analysts and largely held by institutions, when the firm's market‐to‐book ratio is high, and its earnings are important to valuation but hard to predict because its business is complex. A comparison of guided and unguided quarterly forecasts indicates that guided analyst estimates are more accurate, but also more frequently pessimistic. An examination of analysts' annual earnings forecasts over the fiscal year does not distinguish between guidance and no‐guidance firms; both experience a “walk‐down” in annual estimates. To distinguish between guidance and no‐guidance firms, one must examine quarterly earnings news: unguided analysts walk down their annual estimates when the majority of the quarterly earnings news is negative; guided analysts walk down their annual estimates even though the majority of the quarterly earnings news is positive.

Effects of law on corporate financing practices—international evidence from convertible bond issues

Journal of Corporate Finance 2005 11(5), 809-831
Firms can adjust their convertibles to be more debt-like or equity-like through several contract terms. In particular, by providing call protection, a convertible issuer can assure its convertible bondholders that it will not force them to become equity holders during the call protection period. The possibility of a forced conversion instituted by an early call should be more threatening to investors in an economy where local laws are biased against shareholders. I examine call protection terms in an international sample and find evidence consistent with the hypothesis that convertible bond design varies based on the features of local law.

Does monetary policy affect the central bank's role in bank supervision?

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2005 14(1), 58-85 open access
This paper examines whether monetary policy responsibilities alter the central bank's role as a bank supervisor. The analysis focuses on the United States, where the Federal Reserve System shares supervisory duties with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Among the three institutions, the Fed is the only one responsible for monetary policy. Hence, the Fed's supervisory behavior—as captured by formal actions—is compared with the behavior of the other two agencies. The results suggest that the Fed's monetary policy responsibilities do alter its bank supervisory behavior: indicators of monetary policy affect the supervisory actions of the Fed, but do not affect the actions of the other two agencies.

You can’t always get what you want: Trade-size clustering and quantity choice in liquidity

Journal of Financial Economics 2005 78(1), 89-119
This paper examines whether investors care more about trading their exact quantity demands at some times than at others. Using a new data set of foreign exchange transactions, I find that customers trade more precise quantities at quarter-end, as evidenced by less trade-size clustering. Customers trade more odd lots and fewer round lots, while the number of trades and total volume are not significantly changed. I also find that the price impact of order flow is greater when customers care more about trading precise quantities. This work sheds new light on trade-size clustering and offers a potential explanation for time-series and cross-sectional variation in common liquidity measures.

Bidding dynamics in multi-unit auctions: empirical evidence from online auctions of certificates of deposit

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2005 14(2), 239-252
This study examines online multi-unit, discriminatory, ascending auctions of certificates of deposit. We find evidence suggesting that the most aggressive bids are likely to occur at the beginning and the end of the auctions. The opening of the auction serves an important role in price discovery. In addition, in multi-unit auctions last-minute bidding is a conditional strategy, and is used only when bidding is intense. Furthermore, we provide evidence suggesting that revenues are increasing in the depth of the market, in the concentration of early bids, and in bank participation relative to the size of the principal.