Journal of Accounting and Economics201967(2-3), 463-495
I provide evidence that loan loss accounting affects procyclical lending through its impact on regulatory actions. Regulators are more likely to place banks with inadequate loan loss allowances under enforcement actions that restrict lending, leading these banks to lend less during downturns. Further, I find that banks with lower regulatory ratings lend less when they have more timely provisions, consistent with research theorizing that timely provisions increase transparency and inhibit regulatory forbearance. This regulatory action mechanism expands on prior research that has focused on the effect of loan loss recognition on regulatory capital adequacy during economic downturns.
We examine the monitoring and ex-post influence of depositors on risk-taking of U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs) from September 1986 to December 2013. As the basis for our empirical analysis, we develop a theoretical model which shows that under risky lending and deposit insurance, a bank’s liability and asset choices are interrelated through its probability of insolvency. Our empirical results are as follows. First, for the sub-sample of the ten largest (Top10) BHCs, deposit risk pricing only exists over some sub-periods prior to the 2007 financial crisis. However, interest rates on insured deposits and uninsured deposits for the Non-Top10 BHCs increase with bank risk over the whole sample period. Moreover, the growth rates of insured and uninsured deposits tend to decrease as bank risk increases for Non-Top10 BHCs over the entire sample period, but only in some sub-periods for the Top10 institutions. Second, although Top10 BHCs do not increase the insured deposits-to-liabilities ratio to weaken market discipline over the entire sample period, all other institutions engage in such regulatory arbitrage in some sub-periods. Third, higher risk premium embedded in current deposit interest rates is more likely to reduce future insolvency risk of troubled BHCs. This suggests that depositors monitor the riskiness of BHCs while also exerting strong ex-post influence on risk-taking of problem institutions. Fourth, in the post-Dodd-Frank Act/Basel III period, the interest rates, the shares, and the growth rate of insured deposits for the Top10 BHCs are significantly negatively related to bank insolvency risk. This could be due to strengthened regulatory oversight on the largest high-risk institutions and is consistent with a substitution relationship between depositor discipline and regulatory oversight.
Journal of Accounting and Economics201968(1), 101243open access
We examine the relation between firms' voluntary guidance and mandatory 8K filings. We find a negative relation between guidance and 8Ks, which strengthens following the 2004 expansion of mandatory 8K requirements, consistent with firms using the disclosures as substitutes. Increases in 8Ks coincide with declines in firms’ profits, but this negative relation weakens after the 2004 regulation, consistent with firms broadening the scope of information conveyed through 8Ks. Together, our findings suggest firms became more reliant on 8Ks to convey general types of information after the 2004 regulation, rather than primarily negative news, which reduces their incentives to issue guidance.
We propose a distress measure for national banking systems that incorporates not only banks’ CDS spreads, but also how they interact with the rest of the global financial system via multiple linkage types. The measure is based on a tensor decomposition method that extracts an adjacency matrix from a multi-layer network, measured using banks’ foreign exposures obtained from the BIS international banking statistics. Based on this adjacency matrix, we develop a new network centrality measure that can be interpreted in terms of a banking system's credit risk or funding risk.
Journal of Accounting Research201957(5), 1117-1159open access
ABSTRACT We commemorate the 50th anniversary of Ball and Brown [1968] by chronicling its impact on capital market research in accounting. We trace the evolution of various research paths that post–Ball and Brown [1968] researchers took as they sought to build on the foundation laid by Ball and Brown [1968] to create a body of research on the usefulness, timeliness, and other properties of accounting numbers. We discuss how those paths often link back to the groundwork laid and questions originally posed in Ball and Brown [1968].
Journal of Accounting and Economics201967(2-3), 438-462
We examine the discretionary activities that CLO managers engage in to pass monthly overcollateralization (OC) tests. These tests require a CLO's loan portfolio value, scaled by the CLO notes’ principal balance, to be above a certain threshold. Using CLOs’ granular disclosures, we develop model-free estimates for discretionary loan fair valuation and transaction-based proxies for strategic loan trading. We find a positive association between these discretionary activities and the probability of avoiding an OC test violation. This association varies predictably with junior noteholders’ influence and CLO market conditions. Strategic trading—but not discretionary fair valuation—relates to worse future CLO performance.