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Social Insurance and the Marriage Market

Journal of Political Economy 2020 128(1), 252-300
Social insurance is often linked to marriage. Existing evidence suggests small marital responses to financial incentives and stems from settings where benefits are realized in the near future. I analyze how linking survivors insurance to marriage affects the marriage market. Exploiting Sweden’s elimination of survivors insurance, I demonstrate that severing this link (1) affected entry into marriage up to 50 years before expected payout, (2) raised the divorce rate by 10%, and (3) raised the assortativeness of matching. This suggests that marital behavior is a key component of couples’ strategies to plan for financial security in old age.

Financing from Family and Friends

Review of Financial Studies 2016 29(9), 2341-2386
Most informal finance comes from family and friends. Existing informal finance theories cannot match two characteristics of family finance: family investors may accept belowmarket or even negative returns, yet borrowers often prefer formal finance. We argue that social preferences make family finance cheap but create shadow costs that nonetheless discourage its use: Committing family funds to risky investment displaces intrafamily insurance and undermines limited liability. The same characteristics that sustain familial insurance thus render family finance a poor source of risk capital. Even when overcoming capital constraints requires social ties, intermediation and semiformalization may therefore be crucial for promoting risk taking.

Family Ruptures, Stress, and the Mental Health of the Next Generation: Reply

American Economic Review 2018 108(4-5), 1256-1263 open access
Persson and Rossin-Slater (2018) find that prenatal exposure to family ruptures affects childhood and adult mental health, as well as infant physical health. We compare children whose relatives die within 280 days post-conception to children whose relatives die in the year after birth. Matsumoto correctly notes that defining the control group using actual birth dates can bias our estimates. Here, we redefine our control group using expected birth dates. The effects on mental health in childhood and adulthood are statistically indistinguishable from those in our original paper. The infant health impacts are attenuated, but statistically significant in our main specifications.

Family Ruptures, Stress, and the Mental Health of the Next Generation

American Economic Review 2018 108(4-5), 1214-1252 open access
This paper studies how in utero exposure to maternal stress from family ruptures affects later mental health. We find that prenatal exposure to the death of a maternal relative increases take-up of ADHD medications during childhood and anti-anxiety and depression medications in adulthood. Further, family ruptures during pregnancy depress birth outcomes and raise the risk of perinatal complications necessitating hospitalization. Our results suggest large welfare gains from preventing fetal stress from family ruptures and possibly from economically induced stressors such as unemployment. They further suggest that greater stress exposure among the poor may partially explain the intergenerational persistence of poverty.

Financing from Family and Friends

Review of Financial Studies 2016 29(9), 2341-2386 open access
Financing from family and friends is the predominant type of informal finance. This paper proposes a theory that reconciles two seemingly paradoxical traits of this form of finance, namely, it is often provided at negative prices but nevertheless eschewed by borrowers. A central prediction is that such finance, while breeding trust, deters risk taking. Demand is thus constrained: entrepreneurs may forgo risky investment rather than finance it through family and friends. Formal finance is valuable precisely because it is regulated only by contract. The highlighted trade-offs between formal and informal finance are potentially relevant for the provision of microventure capital.

Targeting Precision Medicine: Evidence from Prenatal Screening

Journal of Political Economy 2025 133(2), 604-651
We study the introduction of a noninvasive prenatal screening—cell-free DNA (cfDNA) screening—which is used to target a more costly invasive test that elevates miscarriage risk. Using Swedish administrative data, we document that coverage of cfDNA substantially increases cfDNA screening and reduces invasive testing. We develop and estimate a stylized model of prenatal choices and find that narrow targeting of cfDNA coverage can improve outcomes and reduce costs, while broader coverage also improves outcomes but with increased costs. These findings point to the potential gains from well-designed targeting of screening but at the same time highlight the importance of the targeting design.

Maternal and Infant Health Inequality: New Evidence from Linked Administrative Data

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2025
We use linked administrative data on the universe of California births to provide novel evidence on economic inequality in infant and maternal health. Infants and mothers at the top of the income distribution have worse birth and morbidity outcomes than their lowest-income counterparts, but are nevertheless the least likely to die in the year following birth. Racial disparities swamp these income disparities, with no racial convergence in health outcomes as income rises. A comparison with Sweden shows that infant and maternal health is worse in California at virtually all income levels.