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Disagreement about public information quality and informational price efficiency

Journal of Financial Economics 2024 152, 103762
Investors often hold differing opinions on public information quality. This paper shows that such investor disagreement provides a novel explanation for financial market dynamics around earnings announcements. We propose a rational expectations equilibrium model where investors disagree about the precision of a public signal, which separates a pre-news trading period from a post-news trading period. In equilibrium, investor disagreement about public signal precision diminishes informational price efficiency before the news, but enhances it afterward. Consequently, investor disagreement leads to a notable jump in informed trading around the news, a decline in abnormal trading volume before the news and a surge immediately after the news, and underreaction of stock price to announced earnings.

News Diffusion in Social Networks and Stock Market Reactions

Review of Financial Studies 2025 38(3), 883-937
We study how the social transmission of public news influences investors’ beliefs and the securities markets. Using data on social networks, we find that earnings announcements from firms in higher-centrality counties generate a stronger immediate price, volatility, and trading volume reactions. Post-announcement, such firms experience weaker price drift and faster volatility decay but higher and more persistent volume. These findings suggest greater social connectedness facilitates the timely incorporation of news into prices, as well as opinion divergence and excessive trading. We propose the social churning hypothesis, which is confirmed using granular data from StockTwits messages and household trading records.