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Interbank Contagion at Work: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Review of Financial Studies 2011 24(4), 1337-1377
[This article tests financial contagion due to interbank linkages. For identification, we exploit an idiosyncratic, sudden shock caused by a large-bank failure in conjunction with detailed data on interbank exposures. First, we find robust evidence that higher interbank exposure to the failed bank leads to large deposit withdrawals. Second, the magnitude of contagion is higher for banks with weaker fundamentals. Third, interbank linkages among surviving banks further propagate the shock. Finally, we find results suggesting that there are real economic effects. These results suggest that interbank linkages act as an important channel of contagion and hold important policy implications.]

Contracting when enforcement is weak: evidence from an audit study

Review of Finance 2024 28(5), 1513-1536 open access
How are contracts structured in the presence of relationship-specific investments when legal enforcement is weak? Using a new audit methodology, we show that simple financial contracts in combination with social norms and reputation concerns can sustain relationship-specific transactions. Wholesalers in the market for pens in India use upfront payments rather than increased risk premiums to mitigate risks arising from relationship-specific investments. Upfront payments for printed pens cover only 40 percent of the production costs, highlighting the importance of upfront payments as a screening device. Ex-post, renegotiation is more likely for printed pens, but in a substantial fraction of cases, renegotiation fails.

The Distortive Effects of Too Big To Fail

Review of Financial Studies 2019 32(12), 4653-4695
[We study the impact of too-big-to-fail (TBTF) guarantees on the market for retail deposits. Exploiting information about all personal deposit accounts in Denmark and salient changes to the deposit insurance limit, we provide evidence that systemically important banks successfully retain and attract uninsured deposits in a crisis at the expense of other banks even as they differentially lower their interest rates. The funding shock suffered by nonsystemic banks causes a decrease in their lending. The results point to the distortive effects of TBTF guarantees in the market for retail deposits.]

Ex Post (In) Efficient Negotiation and Breakdown of Trade

American Economic Review 2015 105(5), 291-294 open access
This paper examines frictions in contract renegotiation and its implications for allocative efficiency of contracts. Using a novel audit study methodology, we find that contracting parties in general are reluctant to engage in hold up. However, many efficient renegotiations of contracts also do not happen for the fear of being seen as extracting surplus. We also find that ex ante contracts are structured to mitigate losses arising from breach risk rather than hold up. The results also highlight that role of norms of fairness and reputation concerns in sustaining transactions in settings where contracts are primarily incomplete.

Understanding Bank Runs: The Importance of Depositor-Bank Relationships and Networks

American Economic Review 2012 102(4), 1414-1445
We use unique depositor-level data for a bank that faced a run to understand the factors that affect depositor behavior. We find uninsured depositors are most likely to run. Deposit insurance helps, but is only partially effective. Bank-depositor relationships mitigate runs, suggesting that relationship with depositors help banks reduce fragility. In addition, we also find that social networks matter. Finally, we find long-term effects of a solvent bank run in that depositors who run do not return back to the bank. Our results help understand the underlying dynamics of bank runs and hold important policy implications.

Interbank Liquidity Crunch and the Firm Credit Crunch: Evidence from the 2007–2009 Crisis

Review of Financial Studies 2014 27(1), 347-372
We study the credit supply effects of the unexpected freeze of the European interbank market, using exhaustive Portuguese loan-level data. We find that banks that rely more on interbank borrowing before the crisis decrease their credit supply more during the crisis. The credit supply reduction is stronger for firms that are smaller, with weaker banking relationships. Small firms cannot compensate the credit crunch with other sources of debt. Furthermore, the impact of illiquidity on the credit crunch is stronger for less solvent banks. Finally, we find no overall positive effects of central bank liquidity but instead higher hoarding of liquidity.

A Tale of Two Runs: Depositor Responses to Bank Solvency Risk

Journal of Finance 2016 71(6), 2687-2726
We examine heterogeneity in depositor responses to solvency risk using depositor‐level data for a bank that faced two different runs. We find that depositors with loans and bank staff are less likely to run than others during a low‐solvency‐risk shock, but are more likely to run during a high‐solvency‐risk shock. Uninsured depositors are also sensitive to bank solvency. In contrast, depositors with older accounts run less, and those with frequent past transactions run more, irrespective of the underlying risk. Our results show that the fragility of a bank depends on the composition of its deposit base.

Contracting between Firms: Empirical Evidence

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2018 100(1), 92-104 open access
We analyze contracts between a large buyer and her suppliers. We find that contracts with critical product suppliers contain more clauses that address moral hazard, primarily through monitoring. If holdup concerns are larger, there are more contractual protections against it. Over time, contracts with the same supplier include additional provisions that address moral hazard through monitoring. This dynamic effect is strongest for service contracts, where observability and verifiability are initially lower. Our findings indicate that contracts become more complete over time and provide support to incomplete-contracting models that argue that contracts become more complete as contracting costs decrease.

Interbank Contagion at Work: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Review of Financial Studies 2011 24(4), 1337-1377
This article tests financial contagion due to interbank linkages. For identification, we exploit an idiosyncratic, sudden shock caused by a large-bank failure in conjunction with detailed data on interbank exposures. First, we find robust evidence that higher interbank exposure to the failed bank leads to large deposit withdrawals. Second, the magnitude of contagion is higher for banks with weaker fundamentals. Third, interbank linkages among surviving banks further propagate the shock. Finally, we find results suggesting that there are real economic effects. These results suggest that interbank linkages act as an important channel of contagion and hold important policy implications.

The Effect of Cash Injections: Evidence from the 1980s Farm Debt Crisis

Review of Financial Studies 2020 33(11), 5092-5130 open access
What is the effect of cash injections during financial crises? Exploiting county-level variation arising from random weather shocks during the 1980s Farm Debt Crisis, we analyze and measure the effect of local weather-driven cash flow shocks on the real and financial sectors. We show that such cash flow shocks significantly affect a host of economic outcomes, including land values, loan delinquency rates, the probability of bank failure, employment, and wages. Estimates of the effect of local cash flow shocks on county income levels during the financial crisis yield a multiplier of 1.63.