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Disappearing and reappearing dividends

Journal of Financial Economics 2022 143(1), 207-226
We decompose the decrease (1970s–2000) and subsequent recovery (2000–2018) in the fraction of dividend-paying firms. Changes in firm characteristics and proclivity to pay (probability of paying dividends conditional on characteristics) each drive half of the dividend disappearance. A higher proclivity drives 82% of the dividend reappearance. The remaining 18% is driven by a single characteristic: reduced earnings volatility. Changing characteristics are associated with low-profitability, high-earnings-volatility firms. Changing proclivity is associated with stable, profitable firms. Rather than dividend initiations or omissions, newly listed and delisted firms drive trends. Finally, the magnitude and duration of disappearing total payout is substantially smaller than that of dividends, indicating some substitution between dividends and repurchases.

Concierge treatment from banks: Evidence from the paycheck protection program

Journal of Corporate Finance 2022 72, 102124
We use loans that were extended to public firms through the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) as a laboratory to separate between favoritism and informational advantages in interpersonal ties between banks and firms. Because PPP loans are guaranteed by the government and banks do not need to carefully screen borrowers, this setting reduces information frictions, allowing us to quantify the effect of favoritism. We find that firms with personal ties to banks are more likely to obtain PPP loans. The role of personal ties weakens when firms are less opaque, but does not vary with banks' corporate governance. We also find that connected firms are more likely to return their loans to avoid regulatory scrutiny. Overall, we offer clean estimates of the role of favoritism in bank lending and highlight the unintended consequence of government programs that use the banking system to allocate capital.

On the fast track: Information acquisition costs and information production

Journal of Financial Economics 2022 143(2), 794-823 open access
Using the introduction of high-speed rail (HSR) as an exogenous shock to costs of information acquisition, we show reductions in information-acquisition costs lead to (i) a significant increase in information production, evidenced by a higher frequency of analysts visiting portfolio firms and (ii) improvement in output quality, manifested in higher forecast accuracy and better recommendations. The effect is more pronounced for firms with information that is difficult to produce. Importantly, more information production is also associated with improved price efficiency. We corroborate these findings using a large-scale survey of financial analysts. Finally, both the empirical and survey results highlight the importance of soft information in analysts’ unique-information production.

Cybersecurity Risk

Review of Financial Studies 2022 36(1), 351-407 open access
Based on textual analysis and a comparison of cybersecurity risk disclosures of firms that were hacked to others that were not, we propose a novel firm-level measure of cybersecurity risk for all U.S.-listed firms. We then examine whether cybersecurity risk is priced in the cross-section of stock returns. Portfolios of firms with high exposure to cybersecurity risk outperform other firms, on average, by up to 8.3% per year. Yet, high-exposure firms perform poorly in periods of high cybersecurity risk. Reassuringly, the measure is higher in information-technology industries, correlates with characteristics linked to firms hit by cyberattacks, and predicts future cyberattacks.