We examine whether managerial sentiment is associated with errors in accrual estimates. Using public banks we find (1) managerial sentiment is negatively associated with loan loss provision estimates, (2) future charge-offs per dollar of provision are positively associated with sentiment when the provision is estimated, and (3) the effects of sentiment are greater for firms with more uncertain charge-offs. Results are similar for private banks, suggesting accrual manipulation related to capital market incentives is unlikely to explain the results. Although economic fundamentals explain most of the variation in the provision, we find sentiment has an incremental and economically meaningful effect.

Cash flows play an important role in the accounting and finance literature. They are a major component of earnings, serve as a benchmark for earnings and accruals, and are an input to firm valuation. Although accrual measurement has been extensively studied, research on cash flow measurement remains limited. We review cash flow proxies researchers use in prior literature and highlight the importance of (1) identifying and defining the cash flow construct of interest based on the underlying research question and other constructs of interest and (2) selecting a cash flow proxy that minimizes measurement error and maps well into its construct. We also examine the challenges researchers face in measuring cash flows and demonstrate how measurement choices can affect the magnitude of coefficient estimates and statistical inferences. Finally, our study provides a framework researchers can follow to strengthen the construct validity of cash flow proxies.