Firms often view job applicant referrals from current employees as more informative than direct applications or referrals through formal labor market intermediaries such as placement firms. The authors argue that old boy networks reduce employers' uncertainty about worker productivity. Using Jovanovic's job matching model, they show that workers hired through the old boy network should (1) earn higher initial salaries, (2) experience lower subsequent wage growth on the job, and (3) stay on the job longer than otherwise comparable workers hired from outside the network. They find considerable support for this theory using data from the 1972 Survey of Natural and Social Scientists and Engineers.

This paper considers the effect of an airline's scale of operation at an airport on the profitability of routes flown out of that airport. The empirical methodology uses the entry decisions of airlines as indicators of underlying profitability; the results extend the empirical literature on airport presence by providing a new set of estimates of the determinants of city-pair profitability. These estimates imply that city-pair profits increase in airport presence and decrease rapidly in the number of entering firms. The literature on empirical models of oligopoly entry is also extended via a focus on the role of differences between firms.

Two commonly used sources of aggregate expenditure data are personal consumption expenditures in the National Income an d Product Accounts and the Consumer Expenditure Surveys administered by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The author adjusts b oth data sources to incorporate the service flows from owner-occupied housing and other consumer durables. A comparison of the two estimat es of aggregate expenditure reveals that the differences between the tw o data sets have been growing over time. By 1989 the level of aggregat e expenditure in the national accounts exceeds that reported in the Consumer Expenditure Surveys by $1224 billions. Less than half of th is difference can be attributed to definitional differences in the two data sources.

Worker incentive schemes are invariably assumed to be administered by an owner-entrepreneur who has an incentive to understate worker performance after the event. While tournaments can overcome this problem, they discourage cooperation between workers. We show that a professional manager concerned with equality between workers and with avoiding bankruptcy rather than maximizing shareholder wealth will conduct a tournament that preserves individual effort incentives while promoting cooperation between workers. The theory predicts lower debt levels and more compressed pay scales as cooperation becomes more important. In the limit this becomes a group bonus scheme, supported by "blue-chip" debt.

In a long-standing controversy over monetary experiences in colonial America, the main substantive issue concerns large and rapid increases in stocks of paper currency that were followed by negligible changes in price levels. The "backing theory" or anticlassical interpretation is that prices failed to respond to major increases in total money supplies. The "quantity theory" or classical hypothesis, by contrast, is that specie was exported in amounts that left total money stocks approximately unchanged. This paper develops and applies a strategy for resolving this fundamental disagreement despite the absence of data on stocks and flows of specie.

We use trends in self-reported disability to gauge the impact of the growth of disability transfer programs on the labor force attachment of older working-aged men. Our tabulations suggest that between 1949 and 1987, about half of the 4.9 percentage point drop in the labor force participation of men aged 45–54 and between one quarter and one third of the 19.9 point drop among men aged 55–64 represented a movement of men out of the labor force and onto the rolls of transfer programs targeted at the disabled. Since the expansion of transfer programs represents only one of the forces behind this movement, these figures represent upper bounds on the impact of such programs on work force attachment.

Teen childbearing is commonly believed to cause long-term socioeconomic disadvantages for mothers and their children. However, earlier cross-sectional studies may have inadequately accounted for marked differences in family background among women who have first births at different ages. We present new estimates that take into account unmeasured family background heterogeneity by comparing sisters who timed their first births at different ages. In two of the three data sets we examine, sister comparisons suggest that biases from family background heterogeneity are important, and, therefore, that earlier studies may have overstated the consequences of teen childbearing.

Tim S. Campbell, Yuk-Shee Chan; Optimal Financial Contracting with ex post and ex ante Observability Problems*, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume

In a long-standing controversy over monetary experiences in colonial America, the main substantive issue concerns large and rapid increases in stocks of paper currency that were followed by negligible changes in price levels. The "backing theory" or anticlassical interpretation is that prices failed to respond to major increases in total money supplies. The "quantity theory" or classical hypothesis, by contrast, is that specie was exported in amounts that left total money stocks approximately unchanged. This paper develops and applies a strategy for resolving this fundamental disagreement despite the absence of data on stocks and flows of specie.