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Empirical Evidence on Nominal Wage and Price Flexibility

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1993 108(2), 475-491
This paper tests a necessary condition for the neutrality of money in a framework that imposes only weak restrictions on the money supply process. It extends Bernanke's [1986] work by weakening the set of just-identifying restrictions and by providing a statistical test of the overidentifying restrictions. Instead of specifying a structural model to identify primitive shocks, I deduce the impact effects of structural money shocks under the neutrality hypothesis and then test whether the system maintains neutrality as it propagates these impact effects. The tests reject neutrality for both the M1 and the monetary base.

Equilibrium and Options on Real Assets

Review of Financial Studies 1993 6(4), 825-850
In aggregate, options on real and financial assets can have very different properties. Typically, the good or service produced by a real asset has a finite elasticity of demand and developers have finite capacities. Also, the supply of options can be limited, and developers can be less than perfectly competitive. In a subgame, perfect Nash equilibrium with these properties, the optimal exercise policy, and resulting values of developed and undeveloped assets are calculated explicitly. The novel comparative statics are discussed in details To date, options on real assets, like real estate, natural resources, and capital assets, have been analyzed only in partial equilibrium. 1 When viewed from the perspective of a single developer with a single undeveloped asset, real options have many characteristics in common with financial options. With real estate and other real assets, the option is an undeveloped property, the underlying asset is a developed property, the exercise price is the cost of development, and the maturity is generally infinite. In previous articles special characteristics of real options have been emphasized. These include the time to build, the often sto-I am grateful to Chester Spatt for suggesting this problem and to Chester

Volume, Volatility, and the Dispersion of Beliefs

Review of Financial Studies 1993 6(2), 405-434
I examine a two-period noisy rational expectations model of a futures market and show that the dispersion of expectations about a weighted average of future prices measures both the additional volatility and the additional expected.volume of trade associated with noisy information. The role played by dispersion helps clarify several stylized facts concerning volume and price behavior. Specifically, dispersion can be a factor contributing to the positive correlation between volume and absolute price changes, and the positive correlation between consecutive absolute price changes. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

Equilibrium and Options on Real Assets

Review of Financial Studies 1993 6(4), 825-850
[In aggregate, options on real and financial assets can have very different properties. Typically, the good or service produced by a real asset has a finite elasticity of demand, and developers have finite capacities. Also, the supply of options can be limited, and developers can be less than perfectly competitive. In a subgame, perfect Nash equilibrium with these properties, the optimal exercise policy, and resulting values of developed and undeveloped assets are calculated explicitly. The novel comparative statics are discussed in detail.]

Volume, Volatility, and the Dispersion of Beliefs

Review of Financial Studies 1993 6(2), 405-434
[I examine a two-period noisy rational expectations model of a futures market and show that the dispersion of expectations about a weighted average of future prices measures both the additional volatility and the additional expected volume of trade associated with noisy information. The role played by dispersion helps clarify several stylized facts concerning volume and price behavior. Specifically, dispersion can be a factor contributing to the positive correlation between volume and absolute price changes, and the positive correlation between consecutive absolute price changes.]

Trucking Deregulation and Labor Earnings: Is the Union Premium a Compensating Differential?

Journal of Labor Economics 1993 11(2), 279-301
This article examines wage determination among union and nonunion truck drivers using the 96 monthly Current Population Surveys for 1983-90. Union density in the previously regulated for-hire sector of the trucking industry fell from about 60% during the regulatory period of the 1970s to about 25% by 1990. Union log wage premiums fell from 0.40 in the 1970s to 0.30 or below in the 1980s. Longitudinal estimates from multiple panels for 1983-84 through 1989-90 suggest far smaller union premiums, supporting the thesis that part of the wage differential following deregulation is a compensating premium for driver quality.

Social Welfare of Alternative Controlled-Price Policies

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1993 75(1), 86
Recent developments in social welfare analysis provide insights into the selection of price policies. In the presen t paper a CES social welfare function and a weighted average of utilitarian and leximin rules are used to identify optimal producer prices in an economy where government is the price setter and agents are risk averse. The analysis distinguishes between the interests of commercial producers, peasant producers, consumers, and taxpayers. A n application to Zimbabwe indicates that a maize producer price in the low-medium to medium portion of the historical range would be social ly optimal if egalitarian preferences are moderate. This outcome is somewhat insensitive to group weighting schemes and to interpersonal utility correspondences.