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The Strategic Underreporting of Bank Risk

Review of Financial Studies 2017 30(10), 3376-3415
We show that banks significantly underreport the risk in their trading book when they have lower equity capital. Specifically, a decrease in a bank’s equity capital results in substantially more violations of its self-reported risk levels in the following quarter. Underreporting is especially frequent during the critical periods of high systemic risk and for banks with larger trading operations. We exploit a discontinuity in the expected benefit of underreporting present in Basel regulations to provide further support for a causal link between capitalsaving incentives and underreporting. Overall, we show that banks’ self-reported risk measures become least informative precisely when they matter the most.

Firm Finances and the Spread of COVID-19: Evidence from Nursing Homes

The Review of Corporate Finance Studies 2023 12(1), 1-35
We find that firms’ financial resources play an important role in mitigating the spread of COVID-19. We study nursing homes—whose residents account for over one-third of all U.S. COVID-19 deaths—at a time when investment in risk mitigation was costly and critical. Facilities with less liquidity and those experiencing more severe cash flow shocks had more cases of COVID-19. The importance of cash flow is further supported by tests exploiting state-level variation in Medicaid reimbursement expansion. Evidence on personal protective equipment supplies suggests a lack of financial resources leads to lower investment in risk mitigation.

Color and credit: Race, regulation, and the quality of financial services

Journal of Financial Economics 2021 141(1), 48-65
The incidence of misselling, fraud, and poor customer service by retail banks is significantly higher in areas with higher proportions of poor and minority borrowers and in areas where government regulation promotes an increased quantity of lending. Specifically, low-to-moderate-income (LMI) areas targeted by the Community Reinvestment Act have significantly worse outcomes, and this effect is larger for LMI areas with a high-minority population share. The results highlight an unintended adverse consequence of such quantity-focused regulations on the quality of credit to lower-income and minority customers.

Small Bank Lending in the Era of Fintech and Shadow Banks: A Sideshow?

Review of Financial Studies 2022 35(11), 4948-4984
Amid the emerging dominance of nonbanks, small banks use key financing advantages to persist in the mortgage market. We provide evidence of the heterogeneous impact of two shocks to the supply of mortgage credit: postcrisis regulatory burden and GSE financing cost changes. Small banks exploit regulation disproportionately affecting the largest four banks (Big4) and their ability to lend on balance sheet to strongly substitute for the retreating Big4. The erasure of guarantee fee (g-fee) discounts for large lenders facilitates small bank growth in GSE lending. Small banks also grow balance sheet loans in areas more exposed to g-fee hikes.

Design of Financial Securities: Empirical Evidence from Private-Label RMBS Deals

Review of Financial Studies 2017 30(1), 120-161
We study the key drivers of security design in the residential mortgage-backed security (RMBS) market during the run-up to the subprime mortgage crisis. We show that deals with a higher level of equity tranche have a significantly lower delinquency rate conditional on observable loan characteristics. The effect is concentrated within pools with a higher likelihood of asymmetric information between deal sponsors and potential buyers of the securities. Further, securities sold from high-equity-tranche deals command higher prices conditional on their credit ratings. Overall, our results show that the goal of security design in this market was not only to exploit regulatory arbitrage, but also to mitigate information frictions that were pervasive in this market.

The Strategic Underreporting of Bank Risk

Review of Financial Studies 2017 30(10), 3376-3415
We show that banks significantly underreport the risk in their trading book when they have lower equity capital. Specifically, a decrease in a bank’s equity capital results in substantially more violations of its self-reported risk levels in the following quarter. Underreporting is especially frequent during the critical periods of high systemic risk and for banks with larger trading operations. We exploit a discontinuity in the expected benefit of underreporting present in Basel regulations to provide further support for a causal link between capital-saving incentives and underreporting. Overall, we show that banks’ self-reported risk measures become least informative precisely when they matter the most. Received April 30, 2015; editorial decision October, 27 2016 by Editor Itay Goldstein.