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Voting Technology, Political Responsiveness, and Infant Health: Evidence From Brazil

Econometrica 2015 83(2), 423-464 open access
This paper studies the effects of an electronic voting technology that introduced visual aids in Brazilian elections and facilitated voting for the less educated. Estimates exploiting a regression discontinuity design embedded in its phase-in through time indicate that electronic voting reduced residual (error-ridden and uncounted) votes and generated the de facto enfranchisement of a large fraction (11%) of the electorate. This enhanced political participation of less educated (poorer) voters is then shown to have: (1) increased the number of state legislators that are themselves less educated; and (2) shifted government spending towards public health care, a policy that is particularly beneficial to the poor; leading to (3) improved health services utilization (pre-natal visits) by less educated mothers and (4) reduced occurrence of low-weight births in this group. No effects on health care utilization by more educated mothers and on the weight of their newborns are found. The results are consistent with the predictions of political economy models and demonstrate that electronic voting can promote the political empowerment of the poor and raise their living standards.

The Runner-Up Effect

Journal of Political Economy 2016 124(4), 927-991
Exploiting regression discontinuity designs in Brazilian, Indian, and Canadian first-past-the-post elections, we document that second-place candidates are substantially more likely than close third-place candidates to run in, and win, subsequent elections. Since both candidates lost the election and had similar electoral performance, this is the effect of being labeled the runner-up. Selection into candidacy is unlikely to explain the effect on winning subsequent elections, and we find no effect of finishing in third place versus fourth place. We develop a simple model of strategic coordination by voters that rationalizes the results and provides further predictions that are supported by the data.

Rank Effects in Bargaining: Evidence from Government Formation

Review of Economic Studies 2020 87(3), 1261-1295
Theories of multilateral bargaining and coalition formation applied to legislatures predict that parties’ seat shares determine their bargaining power. We present findings that are difficult to reconcile with this prediction, but consistent with a norm prescribing that “the most voted party should form the government”. We first present case studies from several countries and regression discontinuity design-based evidence from twenty-eight national European parliaments. We then focus on 2,898 Spanish municipal elections in which two parties tie in the number of seats. We find that the party with slightly more general election votes is substantially more likely to appoint the mayor. Since tied parties should (on average) have equal bargaining power, this identifies the effect of being labeled the most voted. This effect is comparable to that of obtaining an additional seat, and is also present when a right-wing party is the most voted and the second and third most voted parties are allied left-wing parties who can form a combined majority. A model where elections both aggregate information and discipline incumbents can rationalize our results and yields additional predictions we take to the data, such as voters punishing second most voted parties that appoint mayors.

‘Acting Wife’: Marriage Market Incentives and Labor Market Investments

American Economic Review 2017 107(11), 3288-3319 open access
Do single women avoid career-enhancing actions because these actions signal undesirable traits, like ambition, to the marriage market? While married and unmarried female MBA students perform similarly when their performance is unobserved by classmates (on exams and problem sets), unmarried women have lower participation grades. In a field experiment, single female students reported lower desired salaries and willingness to travel and work long hours on a real-stakes placement questionnaire when they expected their classmates to see their preferences. Other groups' responses were unaffected by peer observability. A second experiment indicates the effects are driven by observability by single male peers.