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Vintage Human Capital, Growth, and the Diffusion of New Technology

Journal of Political Economy 1991 99(6), 1142-1165
We develop a model of vintage human capital in which each technology requires vintage-specific skills. We examine the properties of a stationary equilibrium for our economy. The stationary equilibrium is characterized by an endogenous distribution of skilled workers across vintages. The distribution is shown to be single-peaked. Under general conditions, there is a lag between the appearance of a technology and its peak usage, a phenomenon known as diffusion. An increase in the rate of exogenous technological change shifts the distribution of human capital to more recent vintages, thereby increasing the diffusion rate.

Exhaustible Resources: A Theory of Exploration

Review of Economic Studies 1991 58(4), 777
The paper presents a theory of exploration for exhaustible resources. Exploration serves both to find new reserves and obtain information about potential reserves. Although any realized time path of the resource price fails to obey the Hotelling rule, the expected resource price does increase exponentially through time at the rate of discount. We obtain sharper results when the resource is assumed to be distributed randomly throughout the exploration region and follows a Poisson process with parameter λ. Consumption and exploration decisions are investigated for both the case where λ is known and the case where λ is unknown.

Vintage Human Capital, Growth, and the Diffusion of New Technology

Journal of Political Economy 1991 99(6), 1142-1165
The authors develop a model of vintage human capital in which each technology requires vintage-specific skills. They examine the properties of a stationary equilibrium for their economy. The stationary equilibrium is characterized by an endogenous distribution of skilled workers across vintages. The distribution is shown to be single-peaked. Under general conditions, there is a lag between the appearance of a technology and its peak usage, a phenomenon known as diffusion. An increase in the rate of exogenous technological change shifts the distribution of human capital to more recent vintages, thereby increasing the diffusion rate. Copyright 1991 by University of Chicago Press.

Risk-Bearing and the Theory of Income Distribution

Review of Economic Studies 1991 58(2), 211
This paper develops the stochastic theory of distribution with a dynamic model which focuses on the role of incomplete insurance in generating inequality. Unlike previous work, our approach takes explicit account of the reason for market incompleteness in modeling agents' behaviour; in particular, the amount of risk borne is endogenous. Using a model of growth with altruism in which agents are risk-averse and there is moral hazard, we show that lineage wealth follows a Markov process which converges globally to an ergodic distribution; this also represents the long-run population distribution of wealth. We discuss the role of particular assumptions, such as availability of production loans and unboundedness of utility, in yielding the qualitative properties of the distribution of wealth, the choice of “occupation” and the prevention of poverty traps.