To make high-quality research more accessible and easier to explore.

Fields:
13 results

How Constraining Are Limits to Arbitrage?

Review of Financial Studies 2016 29(8), 1975-2028
We document the existence of a strategy designed to circumvent limits to arbitrage. Faced with short-sale constraints and noise trader risk, small arbitrageurs publicly reveal their information to induce the target's shareholders ("the longs") to sell, thereby accelerating price discovery. Using data for 124 short-sale campaigns in the United States between 2006 and 2011, we show that investors respond strongly to the information, with spikes in SEC filing views, volatility, order imbalances, realized spreads, turnover, and selling by the longs. Share prices fall by an aggregate $ 14.8 billion. Our findings imply that even extreme short-sale constraints need not constrain arbitrage.

How Constraining Are Limits to Arbitrage?

Review of Financial Studies 2016 29(8), 1975-2028
We document the existence of a strategy designed to circumvent limits to arbitrage. Faced with short-sale constraints and noise trader risk, small arbitrageurs publicly reveal their information to induce the target’s shareholders (“the longs”) to sell, thereby accelerating price discovery. Using data for 124 short-sale campaigns in the United States between 2006 and 2011, we show that investors respond strongly to the information, with spikes in SEC filing views, volatility, order imbalances, realized spreads, turnover, and selling by the longs. Share prices fall by an aggregate $14.8 billion. Our findings imply that even extreme short-sale constraints need not constrain arbitrage.

Access to Home Equity and Consumption: Evidence from a Policy Experiment

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2017 99(1), 40-52
Using unique consumer financial transactions of more than 56,000 consumers, we study the consumption response to a housing policy experiment in Singapore that resulted in a decrease in access to home equity. Using difference-in-differences analysis, we find a significant negative consumption response to the policy shock. Moreover, the consumption response is concentrated in credit card spending and is stronger among individuals with limited access to credit market or with a high precautionary saving motive. These results suggest that a decrease in access to home equity reduces the role of housing as a self-insurance mechanism for consumption smoothing.

Consumption and Debt Response to Unanticipated Income Shocks: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Singapore

American Economic Review 2014 104(12), 4205-4230 open access
This paper uses a unique panel dataset of consumer financial transactions to study how consumers respond to an exogenous unanticipated income shock. Consumption rose significantly after the fiscal policy announcement: during the ten subsequent months, for each $1 received, consumers on average spent $0.80. We find a strong announcement effect—19 percent of the response occurs during the first two-month announcement period via credit cards. Subsequently, consumers switched to debit cards after disbursement before finally increasing spending on credit cards in the later months. Consumers with low liquid assets or with low credit card limit experienced stronger consumption responses.

Consumption response to temporary price shock: Evidence from Singapore's annual sale event

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2022 51, 100966
Exploiting debit card and credit card transactions of a large, representative sample of consumers from a leading bank in Singapore, we examine the consumption response to an anticipated, transitory price shock generated by the nation-wide annual sale event. Consumers significantly increase their spending during the sale event. More importantly, we find inter-temporal substitution where consumers spend less immediately before the event, and cross-categorical substitution behavior where consumers decrease spending in items unaffected by the sale event. However, consumers exhibit little substitution behavior when they use credit cards or when they are liquidity constrained, highlighting the importance of heterogeneity in assessing the aggregate impact of such stimulus programs.

The Hidden Peril: The Role of the Condo Loan Market in the Recent Financial Crisis

Review of Finance 2016 20(2), 467-500 open access
This article studies the condominium loan market, which experienced a 15-fold increase in origination and constituted 15% of the overall residential loan originations from 2001 to 2007. Condominium loan defaults grow at a faster rate than single-family (including subprime) loan defaults. Further analysis suggests that the greater default level and growth rate in later loan cohorts are consistent with the investor channel explanation: investor borrowers default more, especially when house prices start to decline. We also show that condo defaults have triggered more defaults of the same cohort subprime mortgages at the same location.

The Ownership Complaint Gap: Mutual versus Stock Intermediaries

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2020 55(5), 1685-1715
We document a substantial customer complaint gap between stock and mutual financial firms. To assess whether this 21% per year complaint gap stems from complaint-prone customers in stock insurers, we examine state-adjudicated complaint success. To further delineate between customer selection or treatment explanations, we exploit within insurer complaints around random claims (natural disasters) and attention shocks (media scrutiny). Further tests reveal the complaint gap widens with greater competition, near insolvency thresholds, and with more price regulation. Overall, the results are inconsistent with the hypothesis that mutual financial firms exhibit low customer satisfaction, suggesting customers find this a beneficial organizational structure.

Disguised corruption: Evidence from consumer credit in China

Journal of Financial Economics 2020 137(2), 430-450
Using a comprehensive sample of credit card data from a leading Chinese bank, we show that government bureaucrats receive 16% higher credit lines than non-bureaucrats with similar income and demographics, but their accounts experience a significantly higher likelihood of delinquency and debt forgiveness. Regions associated with greater credit provision to bureaucrats open more branches and receive more deposits from the local government. After staggered corruption crackdowns of provincial-level political officials, the new credit cards originated to bureaucrats in exposed regions do not enjoy a credit line premium, and bureaucrats’ delinquency and reinstatement rates are similar to those of non-bureaucrats.

The Composition Effect of Consumption around Retirement: Evidence from Singapore

American Economic Review 2015 105(5), 426-431
It is well established that consumption is “hump” shaped over an individual's lifecycle, peaking in middle age and then declining in the years that follow. Prior research has documented that consumption declines at retirement, which is inconsistent with the standard lifecycle model with consumption smoothing. Using a unique dataset with detailed administrative records of credit and debit card transactions, we show the hump shaped lifecycle consumption pattern as documented in the literature. Additionally, we show compositional changes in consumption expenditures across individuals in the years surrounding retirement confirming the results of Aguiar and Hurst (2005, 2013).

Mortgage Debt, Hand-to-Mouth Households, and Monetary Policy Transmission

Review of Finance 2022 26(3), 487-520 open access
Using a representative sample of credit card holders from a leading Chinese commercial bank, we investigate how consumers respond to an unexpected interest rate decrease that automatically reduces interest expenses for all mortgage borrowers in the country and thereby generates significant positive disposable-income shocks. Our difference-in-differences analysis shows that compared with homeowners without mortgage obligations, mortgage borrowers increased their monthly credit card spending by 8.7% after the 230-bps mortgage rate reduction announced in September 2008. We find a significant spending response both immediately after the announcement and during the post-reset period. The credit card delinquency rate also decreased after the mortgage rate reset. Subsequent to an interest-rate increase episode, mortgage borrowers symmetrically reduced their credit card spending. Hand-to-mouth mortgage borrowers experienced a more pronounced spending increase. The debt-service channel plays an important role in transmitting monetary policy—our estimate implies a marginal propensity to consume 0.40–0.54 through credit card spending.