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The Glittering Prizes: Career Incentives and Bureaucrat Performance

Review of Economic Studies 2019 87(2), 626-655 open access
Bureaucracies are configured differently to private sector and political organizations. Across a wide range of civil services entry is competitive, promotion is constrained by seniority, jobs are for life and retirement occurs at a fixed age. This implies that older entering officers, who are less likely to attain the glittering prize of reaching the top of the bureaucracy before they retire, may be less motivated to exert effort. Using a nationwide stakeholder survey and rich administrative data on elite civil servants in India we provide evidence that: (i) officers who cannot reach the senior-most positions before they retire are perceived to be less effective and are more likely to be suspended and (ii) this effect is weakened by a reform that extends the retirement age. Together these results suggest that the career incentive of reaching the top of a public organization is a powerful determinant of bureaucrat performance.

Inferring latent social networks from stock holdings

Journal of Financial Economics 2019 131(2), 323-344
We infer the latent social networks of investors using data on their stock holdings. We map linkages to portfolio weights using a portfolio-choice model. The precision of an investor’s private signal about firm value is assumed to increase with his connections in the city where the firm is headquartered. Using money-manager data, we find that managerial linkages to a city are overly dispersed relative to the Erdös–Rényi model of i.i.d. connections. Managers at the tail of this distribution with non-i.i.d. linkages have more university alumni in that city. Their stock holdings there outperform their holdings in other cities.

Firm value and market liquidity around the adoption of common accounting standards

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2019 68(1), 101220
The adoption of common accounting standards generates both a precision effect and a network effect. When firms use common standards, investors can leverage their knowledge about the standards to process more financial reports. Embedding both effects into the economic framework of Baiman and Verrecchia (1995, 1996), we study the adoption’s effects on reporting precision, firm value, and liquidity of both the switcher and the early adopter. The model helps address the identification challenge and reconcile some existing results in the empirical literature on IFRS adoption. It also generates implications for standardizing disclosure and accounting methods.

Short interest, stock returns and credit ratings

Journal of Banking & Finance 2019 108, 105617
This paper investigates the role of credit risk in the relationship between short-selling activity and future stock returns. We find that the predictive power of short interest for future returns is concentrated in the worst-rated stocks. Low-grade stocks with the largest short interest decrease outperform those with the largest short interest increase by 1.09 percent in the following month. This return spread is robust to controls for cross-sectional effects and firm characteristics, and is much more pronounced during periods of high investor sentiment and low liquidity. Distressed firms with large short interest increases experience a worse performance subsequently.

How Does Illiquidity Affect Delegated Portfolio Choice?

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2019 54(2), 539-585
In response to how they are compensated, mutual fund managers who are underperforming by mid-year are likely to increase the risk of their portfolios toward the year-end. We argue that an increase in the liquidity of the stocks that managers use to shift risk can lead to an increase in the size of their risky bets. This in turn hurts fund investors by increasing the costs of misaligned incentives associated with delegated portfolio management. We provide both theoretical and empirical results that are consistent with this argument. We use decimalization as an exogenous shock to liquidity to identify causal effects.

Executive Stock Ownership Guidelines and Debtholder Wealth

The Accounting Review 2019 94(2), 267-295
We examine how the adoption of executive stock ownership guidelines affects debtholder wealth. We find that guideline adoption is associated with lower loan spreads, fewer collateral requirements, and fewer other restrictive covenants. The results are robust to using an instrumental variables approach. We further find that guideline adoption has a negative effect on bond yield spreads and that after the adoption, firms' risk-taking incentives are lower. These results suggest that guideline adoption benefits debtholders by lowering agency costs of debt. However, we also find that adoption of ownership guidelines is associated with a significant increase in stock prices, and that firms are more likely to increase financial reporting quality in the post-adoption period, indicating that guideline adoption incentivizes managers to improve firm fundamentals, benefiting both shareholders and debtholders.

The Effects of Audit Quality Disclosure on Audit Effort and Investment Efficiency

The Accounting Review 2019 94(4), 189-214
We develop a model to evaluate the costs and benefits of disclosing information about audit quality. Specifically, we examine whether audit quality disclosure affects auditors' effort and investors' investment efficiency. In our setting, an auditor exerts unobservable effort to influence audit quality and is motivated by liability in the event of audit failure. The usefulness of audited financial reports for investors depends on both the quality of the underlying financial reporting (e.g., as embodied by GAAP) and the quality of auditors' reports (i.e., the likelihood with which audit evidence uncovers managerial misreporting). We show that audit quality disclosure increases auditors' effort incentives if and only if the underlying financial reporting quality is relatively weak. We also show that such disclosure can actually reduce investment efficiency. Our analyses contribute to the debate about policies aimed at improving audit transparency.

Politicians’ promotion incentives and bank risk exposure in China

Journal of Banking & Finance 2019 99, 63-94
This paper shows that politicians’ pressure to climb the career ladder increases bank risk exposure in their region. Chinese local politicians are set growth targets in their region that are relative to each other. Growth is stimulated by debt-financed programs which are mainly financed via bank loans. The stronger the performance pressure the riskier the respective local bank exposure becomes. This effect holds for local banks which are under some control of local politicians, it has increased with the release of stimulus packages requiring local co-financing and it is stronger if politicians hold chairmen positions in bank boards.