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International Trade Liberalization and Domestic Institutional Reform: Effects of WTO Accession on Chinese Internal Migration Policy

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2024 106(3), 794-813 open access
Economic institutions that impede factor mobility become more costly when an economy experiences substantial transitions such as trade liberalization. I study how trade triggers changes in labor institutions that regulate internal migration in the context of China’s Hukou system. Using a newly collected dataset on prefecture-level migration policies, I document an increase in promigrant regulations following WTO entry and estimate the impact of prefecture-level tariffs on exports on migration regulations from 2001 to 2007. I find that regions facing more export market liberalization enacted more migrant-friendly regulations.

Asymmetric Price Movements and Borrowing Constraints: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model of Crises, Contagion, and Confusion

Journal of Finance 2005 60(1), 379-411 open access
This study proposes a rational expectations equilibrium model of crises and contagion in an economy with information asymmetry and borrowing constraints. Consistent with empirical observations, the model finds: (1) Crises can be caused by small shocks to fundamentals; (2) market return distributions are asymmetric; and (3) correlations among asset returns tend to increase during crashes. The model also predicts: (1) Crises and contagion are likely to occur after small shocks in the intermediate price region; (2) the skewness of asset price distributions increases with information asymmetry and borrowing constraints; and (3) crises can spread through investor borrowing constraints.

The slicing approach to valuing tax shields

Journal of Banking & Finance 2009 33(6), 1069-1078 open access
The literature develops the theoretical rationale for the Value of Tax Shields (VTS) on the following misguided basis: it uses required rate of return on assets (or WACC) as the discount rate for capitalization, it uses expected rate of return on assets (ROA¯ or ROI¯) as a proxy for WACC, and it is not aware of (1) the influence of the difference between “expected rate of return on equity” and “Required rate of Return On Equity (RROE)” on VTS, (2) the fact that RROE is equity normal profit which is not measurable, (3) the economic content of the weight attached to the VTS capacity, and (4) the co-definition of “tax shield and leverage return.” This paper takes tax shields and leverage return as a system and provides a knife, “interest rate/ROI=Cost/Price”, to slice the VTS capacity into “earned VTS” and “unearned VTS.” Earned VTS is VTS. Unearned VTS is the value of leverage return, because leverage return is tax payable.

On the Growth Effect of Stock Market Liberalizations

Review of Financial Studies 2009 22(11), 4715-4752
[We investigate the effect of a stock market liberalization on industry growth in emerging markets. Consistent with the view that liberalization reduces financing constraints, we find that industries that are more externally dependent and face better growth opportunities grew faster following liberalization. However, this growth increase appears to come from an expansion in the size of existing firms rather than through the entry of financially constrained new firms. We show that following liberalization, new firm growth occurs in countries and industries with lower entry barriers. Hence, liberalization has a more uniform growth impact if accompanied by competition-enhancing reforms.]

Analyst responsiveness and the post-earnings-announcement drift

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2008 46(1), 201-215
This study examines the responsiveness of analyst forecasts to current earnings announcements. The results show considerable cross-sectional variation in analyst responsiveness and suggest that this variation is related to the costs and benefits associated with prompt forecast revisions. More importantly, this study finds that with responsive forecast revisions, more of the market reaction takes place in the event window and less in the drift window, suggesting that analyst responsiveness mitigates the post-earnings-announcement drift and facilitates market efficiency.

Revenue recognition timing and attributes of reported revenue: The case of software industry's adoption of SOP 91-1

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2005 39(3), 535-561 open access
I examine how revenue recognition timing affects attributes of reported revenue, using a sample of software firms that adopted Statement of Position 91-1 in the early 1990s. I find early recognition yields more timely revenue information, as evidenced by higher contemporaneous correlation with information impounded in stock returns. However, such early recognition diminishes the extent to which accounts receivable accruals map into future cash flow realizations and lowers the time-series predictability of reported revenue. Overall, the results suggest early revenue recognition makes reported revenue more timely and more relevant, but at the cost of lower reliability and lower time-series predictability.

Mispricing Factors

Review of Financial Studies 2017 30(4), 1270-1315
A four-factor model with two "mispricing" factors, in addition to market and size factors, accommodates a large set of anomalies better than notable four- and five-factor alternative models. Moreover, our size factor reveals a small-firm premium nearly twice usual estimates. The mispricing factors aggregate information across 11 prominent anomalies by averaging rankings within two clusters exhibiting the greatest return co-movement. Investor sentiment predicts the mispricing factors, especially their short legs, consistent with a mispricing interpretation and the asymmetry in ease of buying versus shorting. A three-factor model with a single mispricing factor also performs well, especially in Bayesian model comparisons.

Do Sovereign Bonds Benefit Corporate Bonds in Emerging Markets?

Review of Financial Studies 2008 21(5), 1983-2014
[We analyze the impact of emerging-market sovereign bonds on emerging-market corporate bonds by examining their spanning enhancement, price discovery, and issuance effects. We find that the effect of spanning enhancement is positive and large; over one-fifth of the information in corporate yield spreads is traced to innovations in sovereign bonds; and most of these effects are due to discovery and spanning of systematic risks. Further, issuance of sovereign bonds, controlling for endogeneity of market-timing decisions, lowers corporate yield and bid-ask spreads. Our results indicate that sovereign securities act as benchmarks and suggest they promote a vibrant corporate bond market.]